VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee market rebounded strongly on September 27, with Robusta prices rising by VND 2,100 - 2,700 per kg to reach VND 114,300 - 115,600 per kg, the highest level in recent weeks.
On the London ICE Futures Exchange, November 2025 Robusta contracts closed 2.61% higher at USD 4,201 per tonne (+USD 107), while January 2026 contracts rose 2.45% to USD 4,182 per tonne (+USD 100).
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the November 2025 contract is equivalent to approximately VND 111,000 per kg.
Domestic Market Update
Coffee prices across the Central Highlands increased sharply on September 27:
Lam Dong (Di Linh, Lam Ha, Bao Loc, Duc Trong): VND 114,300/kg (+2,100)
Dak Lak (Cu M’gar): VND 115,400/kg; Ea H’leo, Buon Ho: VND 115,300/kg (+2,500)
Dak Nong (Gia Nghia, Dak R’lap): VND 115,500 - 115,600/kg (+2,700)
Gia Lai (Chu Prong, Pleiku, La Grai): VND 115,200 - 115,300/kg (+2,700)
Kon Tum: VND 115,300/kg (+2,700)
The average domestic price now stands at around VND 115,500 per kg, which is VND 4,500/kg (approximately USD 170/tonne) higher than the London November 2025 futures price. In U.S. dollars, Vietnam’s Robusta currently trades around USD 4.37/kg.
Key Drivers of the Price Rally
The sharp rebound was mainly attributed to adverse weather conditions in Vietnam ahead of the harvest season. Tropical Storm Bualoi has brought heavy rainfall and flooding risks, raising concerns over potential yield and production losses in major coffee-growing regions.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
Supply Factors:
Vietnam remains the world’s leading Robusta producer. Rapid harvesting and export progress could ease supply pressure, while unfavorable weather or harvest delays may tighten supply and support prices.
Market Sentiment & Speculative Flows:
With Arabica prices heating up, speculative capital could shift toward Robusta if supportive signals appear (e.g., a narrowing London - New York price spread). Conversely, profit-taking could weigh on prices if technical signals turn bearish.
Macroeconomic Conditions & Exchange Rates:
A weaker U.S. dollar typically benefits USD-denominated commodities like coffee. Soft U.S. or Eurozone economic data could also drive funds into commodities, lending support to prices.
Arabica Trends & Price Spreads:
Continued strength in Arabica may lift Robusta through arbitrage or general bullish sentiment. However, if the price spread widens unfavorably, Robusta may face downward pressure.
Technical Levels:
Although prices have rebounded, Robusta remains below early-week highs. If key support zones are breached, further corrections could follow.
Forecast
Given current dynamics - steady supply, a soft U.S. dollar, and no major bullish catalyst - Robusta prices are expected to trade within a narrow range of USD 4,100 - 4,250 per tonne in the upcoming week.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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