VINAGRI News - The global rice market is witnessing unusual movements as top importers Philippines and Indonesia alter their trade strategies, while leading exporters India and Thailand also adjust policies - creating fresh volatility worldwide.
Philippines considers extending import suspension and raising tariffs
The Philippines - the world’s largest rice importer - has been halfway through its 60-day rice import suspension. According to the Department of Agriculture, the policy has helped domestic paddy prices surge from 8 pesos/kg to 14 pesos/kg (USD 0.24/kg). As the country’s main harvest season peaks, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has instructed Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. to consider extending the ban by 15 - 30 days.
However, the Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) has expressed concerns, warning that cheap foreign rice will flood the market once the ban ends. The group urges the government to restore the 35% import tariff to stabilize local prices.
On September 24, Secretary Tiu Laurel stated that decisions regarding the suspension and potential tariff hike would depend on more precise data on domestic supply and farmgate prices.
Before the ban took effect, the Philippines had already imported 3.1 million tonnes, equivalent to 64.1% of its 2024 record of 4.8 million tonnes. Vietnam accounted for 51.5% of imports, followed by Myanmar (7.1%), with smaller volumes from Thailand, China, Pakistan, and India.
Indonesia declares self-sufficiency but faces price pressures
Indonesia - the world’s second-largest rice importer in 2024 - has significantly reduced imports in 2025. At the 80th UN General Assembly, President Prabowo Subianto announced that Indonesia had achieved record-high rice production and reserves, becoming self-sufficient and even exporting rice, including 10,000 tonnes in aid to Palestine earlier this year.
Yet, Reuters reports a contrasting picture: average rice prices in August 2025 reached 15,950 rupiah (USD 0.96)/kg, up 5% since January and matching the March 2024 record high, due to El Niño-induced droughts. Despite domestic output rising 16% in the first seven months of 2025, supply chain inefficiencies have led to localized shortages.
Inspections last month found 8 out of 35 Jakarta supermarkets had no rice stock. The Bulog state reserve now holds nearly 4 million tonnes, almost double the end-2024 level, but distribution issues persist in the world’s fourth most populous nation.
Export giants face their own challenges
On the export side, India - the world’s top rice exporter - holds over 48 million tonnes in reserves, but export prices have fallen to a three-year low. To stabilize the market and improve transparency, India has introduced mandatory registration for white (non-basmati) rice export contracts and imposed fees of 8 rupees/tonne (USD 0.09). Fees for basmati rice were also raised from 30 - 70 rupees/tonne.
Meanwhile, Thailand, the second-largest exporter, shipped just over 5 million tonnes in the first 8 months of 2025, down 24% year-on-year. Export earnings fell 30% to nearly USD 4 billion, marking 10 consecutive months of decline, especially in key markets like the U.S., South Africa, Senegal, and Iraq. To offset losses, Thailand is expanding its premium rice promotions - such as Hom Mali - at international food fairs, including Fine Food Australia.
Vietnam: Stable prices amid global volatility
Despite global price drops, Vietnamese rice exports remain stable. As of September 15, Vietnam had exported 6.6 million tonnes, up 1.5% year-on-year, earning nearly USD 3.4 billion (down 17% due to lower global prices). Export offers for 5% broken fragrant rice range between USD 440 - 465/tonne, while Jasmine rice is quoted at USD 496 - 500/tonne.
Domestically, prices rose 90 - 164 VND/kg due to tighter supplies. Although global prices fell - by USD 6 month-on-month and USD 210 year-on-year - Vietnam’s rice remains competitive thanks to its distinct market segments.
Exporters attribute the global decline to record-high global supply, particularly from India and China. Still, the USDA projects strong demand from African markets, where Vietnam holds a solid presence. In addition, the Philippines - despite its temporary import pause - will likely continue to rely heavily on Vietnamese rice given supply shortfalls and cost advantages.
Officials in Manila have acknowledged that, from an economic standpoint, importing remains more cost-effective than domestic production.
Outlook
While shifting policies among major importers and exporters are reshaping the global rice landscape, Vietnam’s market remains resilient. Stable export prices, strong demand from Africa and Southeast Asia, and loyal consumer bases in key markets like the Philippines suggest Vietnam is well-positioned to meet its 2025 export targets, despite global headwinds.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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