VINAGRI News - Coffee prices remained stable in Vietnam on Monday, with domestic rates ranging between VND 116,700 and 117,100 per kilogram, as global markets awaited the reopening of key futures exchanges later in the day.
Summary:
> Vietnam: Prices steady at VND 116,700 - 117,100/kg; early harvest underway, supply still light.
> Futures: Robusta USD 4,527/t (+4.74%), Arabica USD 8,610/t.
> Brazil: Dry weather in Minas Gerais threatens Arabica flowering; Robusta weather more favorable.
> Stocks: ICE inventories at multi-month lows; La Niña risk (71%) adds bullish pressure.
> Outlook: Robusta may test USD 4,580 - 4,600/t; Arabica 370 - 395 US¢/lb, bias upward.
The London Robusta and New York Arabica markets are scheduled to resume trading at 4:00 p.m. (Vietnam time). In the previous session on October 3, Robusta futures for November 2025 closed sharply higher at USD 4,527 per metric ton (+4.74%), while Arabica futures for December 2025 settled at USD 8,610 per ton.
At the current exchange rate of VND 26,367 per USD, the domestic price average of VND 116,900/kg remains approximately VND 2,400/kg (or USD 91.2/ton) below the London futures benchmark.
Early harvest begins in Vietnam, supply pressure still light
Vietnamese farmers have begun harvesting early-ripening cherries, particularly in the Central Highlands, where weather conditions remain stable despite the passing of Typhoons Bualoi and Matmo. The main harvest has not yet started, keeping market supply pressure limited for now.
According to the Vietnam News Agency (TTXVN), cooperatives in Đắk Nông province expect the new crop’s output to be largely stable compared with last year. Some growers in Lâm Đồng province also report similar yields, suggesting no significant increase in national production.
Brazil weather raises supply concerns
In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, September - October marks the crucial flowering and fruit-setting phase for the 2025/2026 crop.
During this stage, trees need a brief dry period to induce flower buds, followed by consistent light rains to support synchronized flowering and fruit development.
However, the Minas Gerais region - Brazil’s largest Arabica-producing area - is currently experiencing dry and sunny weather with little rainfall, raising concerns about flower drop and lower yields.
Conversely, Espírito Santo, the leading Robusta-growing region, is seeing warmer, more humid conditions with scattered showers, which are more favorable for crop development.
Overall, the uneven weather could lead to supply risks for Arabica beans in the coming crop year.
Inventories decline; Trade and climate factors support prices
Certified coffee stocks on the ICE exchange have continued to decline, adding further support to global prices.
As of October 3, Arabica inventories fell to 538,606 bags, their lowest level in 18 months, while Robusta inventories dropped to 6,345 lots, a two-month low.
The drawdown is partly attributed to the U.S. imposing a 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee, which has slowed export flows.
Meanwhile, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised the likelihood of a La Niña event in Q4 2025 to 71%, potentially worsening dry conditions across South America and affecting the 2026/2027 crop.
On the regulatory front, the EU’s anti-deforestation law (EUDR) may face further delays, offering temporary relief to coffee exporters and minimizing short-term market disruptions.
Market outlook: Bullish tone persists
Robusta: Expected to trade firmly between USD 4,580 - 4,600/ton, supported by: The strong rally from last week (+USD 205); Dry weather in Brazil’s Arabica regions raising supply concerns; Low domestic selling pressure in Vietnam as the main harvest has yet to start.
Arabica: Prices may test resistance levels at 400 - 405 US cents/lb if adverse weather persists or speculative buying returns. In a neutral environment, the range is expected between 370 - 395 US cents/lb.
Overall, the market outlook remains bullish in the short term, driven by tight inventories, adverse weather risks, and limited new supply from Vietnam.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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