VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange extended their losses on Tuesday, October 7, as forecasts of favorable weather in Brazil and rising exports from Vietnam weighed on sentiment. Technical indicators suggest continued downside momentum, with prices likely to trade in a narrow range in the next session.
Summary:
> London Robusta (Nov 2025): $4,414/ton, ↓1.26% (-$57)
> London Robusta (Jan 2026): $4,388/ton, ↓1.69% (-$76)
> Converted price (VND): 116,300 VND/kg
> Domestic price (Vietnam’s Central Highlands): 113,300 - 114,100 VND/kg, ↓1,000 VND/kg
> Price gap: Domestic prices ~2,500 VND/kg lower than London futures
> Bearish factors: Favorable weather in Brazil, rising Vietnam exports, strong USD
> Short-term outlook: Likely range-bound between $4,350 - $4,450/ton
At the close of trading on Tuesday, October 7, 2025, London Robusta coffee futures extended their downward trend. The November 2025 contract fell 1.26% (-$57) to $4,414/ton, the January 2026 contract dropped 1.69% (-$76) to $4,388/ton.
Converted to local currency, the November 2025 futures price equals approximately 116,300 VND/kg.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic Robusta prices on October 8 declined by 1,000 VND/kg, ranging between 113,300 - 114,100 VND/kg. The average domestic price of 113,800 VND/kg remains 2,500 VND/kg lower than London’s November futures (approximately $94.85/ton) at the current exchange rate (1 USD = 26,358 VND).
The downward pressure on prices is primarily driven by favorable weather forecasts in Brazil. Meteorological agency Climatempo reported that widespread rains of over 30 mm are expected this week across São Paulo and Minas Gerais, improving soil moisture during a critical stage of the coffee crop.
Earlier, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on Monday that global coffee exports in the current marketing year (October - August) rose 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, adding to supply concerns.
For Robusta, the bearish tone is reinforced by increased supply from Vietnam. According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 reached 1.23 million tons, up 10.9% year-on-year.
The recent decline reflects ample supply outlooks from major producers like Brazil and Vietnam, along with profit-taking after strong gains in Q3. Additionally, a strong U.S. dollar and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates continue to pressure commodity prices, including coffee.
According to technical indicators on Investing.com, the London Robusta market currently signals a “Strong Sell / Sell” trend.
In the short term, Robusta futures may fall 0.5% to 1.5% further on October 8, or remain range-bound if selling pressure eases. Analysts expect prices to fluctuate within $4,350 - $4,450/ton in the near term.
While current supply-demand dynamics point toward a bearish trend, climate risks in Brazil and global trade policy developments remain key uncertainties. Given the high sensitivity of soft commodity markets to weather and policy changes, both producers and importers are advised to remain vigilant amid potential volatility.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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