VINAGRI News - London robusta coffee prices fell on October 14 due to ample supply and favorable rainfall in Vietnam, while arabica gained on dry weather concerns in Brazil. Prices are expected to edge slightly higher on October 15, ranging between $4,550 - $4,620 per ton.
Summary:
> November 2025 robusta fell 1.59% to $4,487/ton.
> Domestic Vietnamese prices dropped 700 - 800 VND/kg to 113,100 - 113,800 VND/kg.
> Arabica rose on drought concerns in Brazil.
> ICE arabica and robusta inventories declined to multi-month lows.
> Vietnam’s abundant rainfall supports yield and pressures prices.
> 2025/26 robusta output in Vietnam is expected to increase.
> Stronger USD and high interest rates may weigh on buying.
> Forecast: Robusta London may close at $4,550 - $4,620/ton on Oct 15.
At the close of trading on Tuesday (October 14), London robusta coffee futures for November 2025 fell back to $4,487 per ton, down 1.59% (-$73) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also declined 1.04% (-$47) to $4,420 per ton.
Converted to local currency, the November 2025 robusta contract was equivalent to 118,200 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,346.99 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic robusta prices on October 15 dropped by 700 - 800 VND/kg, to a range of 113,100 - 113,800 VND/kg. With an average of 113,700 VND/kg, domestic robusta prices are currently 4,500 VND/kg (around $170/ton) lower than London’s November futures.
According to Barchart, arabica coffee prices rose to their highest level since mid-September amid renewed concerns about dry weather in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. Forecasts indicate dry conditions may persist from around October 20 through the end of the month, raising fears of reduced yields during the critical flowering stage of Brazil’s 2026/27 crop.
Traders are also concerned about declining ICE-certified coffee inventories, which have fallen to their lowest levels since March 2024. ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to a 1.5-year low of 496,808 bags as of October 14, while robusta inventories fell to a 2.75-month low of 6,228 lots.
However, favorable rainfall in Vietnam is putting downward pressure on robusta prices. The Central Highlands, Vietnam’s key coffee-growing region, is forecast to receive above-average rainfall through October 20, supporting crop development and yield prospects. Đắk Lắk Province, the country’s largest coffee-producing area, is expected to receive about 70 mm of rain next week, compared with the historical average of 61.3 mm.
In addition to weather influences, ample supply expectations are keeping robusta prices in check. Vietnam’s 2025/26 robusta production is projected to rise, boosting global supply and potentially limiting price recovery on the London market.
Furthermore, a stronger US dollar or higher global interest rates could increase financing costs and currency risks for exporters and traders, further dampening demand.
Neutral Outlook: In the absence of major market shocks, London robusta futures on October 15 are expected to edge slightly higher, likely closing between $4,550 and $4,620 per ton.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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