VINAGRI News - London robusta coffee futures surged strongly on October 22 as ICE inventories fell sharply and weather risks in Vietnam fueled supply concerns. Domestic prices in Vietnam also jumped, with the market outlook remaining bullish in the short term amid tight supply and adverse weather forecasts.
Summary:
> Robusta November 2025 futures rose 2.58% to $4,739/tonne; January 2026 up 2.62% to $4,694/tonne.
> Domestic prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands increased to VND 117,100 - 118,500/kg.
> ICE arabica inventories fell to a 19-month low; robusta to a 3-month low.
> U.S. 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee tightened supply further.
> Storm Fengshen threatens Vietnam’s coffee heartland with heavy rain and landslides.
> Prices may fluctuate around $4,720 - $4,760/tonne, with potential to rise toward $4,780 if weather risks persist.
Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange closed sharply higher on Wednesday (October 22). The November 2025 contract surged by 2.58% (+$119) to $4,739/tonne, while the January 2026 contract also advanced by 2.62% (+$120) to $4,694/tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the November 2025 Robusta contract equates to approximately VND 124,800/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = VND 26,335.
Domestic market
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands - the country’s key coffee-growing region - robusta prices on Thursday morning (October 23) rose sharply by VND 2,100 - 2,800/kg, reaching VND 117,100 - 118,500/kg.
At the average level of VND 118,300/kg, domestic robusta prices remain about VND 6,500/kg lower (equivalent to $247/tonne) than the November 2025 London futures price.
Market drivers
Prices received strong support from a sharp drop in ICE-monitored inventories. As of October 22, arabica stocks fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while robusta inventories declined to a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.
Additionally, the U.S. imposition of a 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee - Brazil being the source of roughly one-third of U.S. green coffee imports - has forced American roasters to cancel new purchase contracts, tightening supply in the U.S. market.
Weather concerns in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, have also added bullish momentum. The Vietnam Meteorological Agency warned that Tropical Storm Fengshen could bring heavy rainfall, flash floods, and landslides in the Central Highlands, threatening major coffee-producing areas.
Outlook
In the short term, the overall trend for robusta remains bullish, supported by tight supply fundamentals and ongoing weather concerns. However, technical profit-taking could lead to short-term price fluctuations between $4,720 and $4,760/tonne before the market establishes a new direction.
For the session on October 23, London robusta futures for November 2025 are expected to rise by an additional 0.3 - 0.6%, potentially moving toward the $4,760 - $4,780/tonne range if adverse weather conditions persist.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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