VINAGRI News - Pepper prices in Vietnam continued to fall on October 1, dropping VND 1,500 - 3,000/kg from the previous day to range between VND 146,000 - 147,000/kg (equivalent to USD 5.53 - 5.57/kg). In the short term, the market is expected to move within a narrow range as demand remains stable. However, over the longer term, supply-demand fundamentals could provide upward support to prices.
A market survey this morning confirmed the domestic decline, with trading levels settling in the VND 146,000 - 147,000/kg range.
According to the International Pepper Community (IPC), the latest session saw Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) ease by USD 5/ton to USD 6,979/ton.
Prices in other key producing countries remained mostly unchanged. Brazil’s black pepper (ASTA 570) held steady at USD 6,500/ton, while Malaysia’s Kuching black pepper traded at USD 9,600/ton.
Vietnam’s export prices were quoted between USD 6,600 - 6,800/ton for black pepper grades 500 g/l and 550 g/l.
The IPC noted that last week’s market sentiment remained subdued, with no producing country recording price gains.
In India, both domestic and export prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, partly due to a 1% depreciation of the Indian rupee (to INR 88.50/USD).
In Indonesia, prices declined as the rupiah weakened by 1% against the U.S. dollar (IDR 16,690/USD).
Malaysia saw domestic prices slip, though export prices were unchanged. Sri Lanka’s market remained stable, while Brazil recorded slight declines. Cambodia’s black pepper and China’s white pepper also held steady.
According to the latest report from Harris Spice, despite ongoing harvests in Indonesia and Brazil, selling pressure remains muted.
Strong domestic speculative buying has supported prices in Indonesia, while in Brazil, farmer and trader stockpiling, combined with firm coffee prices, has helped stabilize the pepper market. Additionally, steady demand from China over the past two weeks has lent further support.
Harris Spice forecasts that as long as demand remains healthy, prices will likely continue to trade within a narrow range. Fresh supplies from northern Brazil and Indonesia are expected to stabilize the market and prevent sharp price spikes.
Meanwhile, carryover stocks in Vietnam and Brazil will continue to influence supply, helping maintain overall price stability. Some Vietnamese traders may shift capital from pepper to coffee trading, adding mild downward pressure.
In the long term, production prospects for the upcoming crop in Vietnam and Brazil remain uncertain. Supply-side risks, including potential impacts from U.S. import tariffs, could create volatility.
Overall, while short-term sideways movement is expected, longer-term price increases remain possible as supply uncertainties and steady demand reshape market dynamics.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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