VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange fell on October 17 as forecasts of rain in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised expectations for improved crop yields. Favorable weather overshadowed tightening supply concerns, pushing futures lower despite declining inventories.
Summary:
> London Robusta (Nov 2025) fell 1.33% (-$62) to $4,552/ton; Jan 2026 down 1.01% (-$46) to $4,478/ton.
> Vietnam domestic prices dropped 1,000 VND/kg to 113,600 - 114,500 VND/kg.
> Forecasts predict 70 mm of rain in Dak Lak next week, above the historical average.
> ICE Robusta inventories fell to a 2.75-month low (6,176 lots).
> Weather optimism outweighed supply concerns and tightened inventories.
> Robusta prices remain pressured by logistics, export, and demand factors, while Arabica prices strengthened.
Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange fell on Friday (October 17), with the November 2025 contract closing down 1.33% (-$62) at $4,552 per metric ton. The January 2026 contract also dropped 1.01% (-$46) to $4,478 per ton.
Converted to Vietnamese dong, the November 2025 Robusta contract equates to 119,900 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,341.99 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on Saturday (October 18) fell by 1,000 VND/kg, ranging between 113,600 and 114,500 VND/kg. With an average price of 114,300 VND/kg, domestic Robusta currently trades about 5,600 VND/kg lower (roughly $212 per ton) than the November 2025 futures price on the London exchange.
The decline in Robusta prices was mainly driven by weather forecasts calling for rainfall across Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main coffee-growing region, which is expected to support crop development and boost yields. Dak Lak province - Vietnam’s largest coffee producer - is forecast to receive around 70 millimeters of rain next week, compared with a historical average of 61.3 millimeters.
Although ICE-monitored Robusta inventories fell to a 2.75-month low of 6,176 lots, the downward pressure from favorable weather conditions has outweighed supply deficit concerns.
Robusta, considered a more “basic” coffee variety than Arabica, is more exposed to regional supply dynamics, as well as export policies, logistics costs, exchange rate movements, and demand for instant coffee. When importers grow more cautious about costs and risks, they tend to scale back Robusta purchases - adding further pressure on prices.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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