VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange rebounded strongly on October 21, supported by escalating trade tensions between the United States and Colombia, and expectations of tighter global coffee supplies.
Summary:
> November 2025 robusta futures rose 2.30% to USD 4,620/tonne.
> Domestic prices in Vietnam increased to VND 115,000 - 115,700/kg.
> The price gap between London futures and local markets stood at about VND 6,200/kg.
> Traders remain concerned over U.S. - Colombia trade disputes affecting supply.
> ICE coffee inventories dropped to multi-month lows.
> Prices are forecast to fluctuate between USD 4,590 and 4,670/tonne on October 22.
At the close of trading on Tuesday (October 21), London robusta coffee futures for November 2025 delivery surged 2.30% (+USD 104) to USD 4,620 per tonne. The January 2026 contract also climbed 2.46% (+USD 110) to USD 4,574 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the November 2025 robusta futures price reached VND 121,700 per kilogram, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,351.50.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, local coffee prices rose by VND 1,200/kg on the morning of October 22, to between VND 115,000 and 115,700 per kilogram. With an average of VND 115,500/kg, domestic robusta prices remained around VND 6,200/kg (approximately USD 235/tonne) lower than London’s November 2025 futures price.
According to Reuters, ICE coffee futures advanced as traders grew increasingly concerned about escalating tensions between the United States and Colombia - the world’s third-largest coffee producer and the second-largest arabica supplier after Brazil.
Colombia has recalled its ambassador from Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to increase tariffs on the South American nation and suspend all payments to Colombia.
The U.S., the world’s largest coffee consumer, currently imposes a 10% tariff on imports from Colombia. It purchases roughly one-fifth of its coffee beans from Colombia and about one-third from Brazil, the world’s top producer.
Colombia is the second-largest coffee supplier to the U.S., following Brazil. In 2024, Colombia accounted for 19% of the U.S. coffee market, compared with Brazil’s 32%. However, in the first eight months of this year, the gap has narrowed significantly - Colombia’s coffee exports to the U.S. rose 14.7% to 3.3 million bags thanks to a bumper harvest, while Brazil’s exports fell 20.7% to the same level of 3.3 million bags.
Meanwhile, the 50% tariff the U.S. has imposed on Brazilian coffee imports has led to a sharp decline in certified coffee inventories. ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to a 19-month low of 467,110 bags last Friday, while robusta inventories dropped to a three-month low of 6,152 lots on Tuesday.
Robusta coffee futures for November 2025 on the London exchange are expected to trade in the range of USD 4,590 - 4,670 per tonne on October 22, with a likely bias toward USD 4,630 per tonne.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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