VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam continued their upward momentum on October 30, gaining an additional 800 - 1,000 VND/kg to reach 115,600 - 116,700 VND/kg. Global robusta prices on the London exchange also surged sharply due to declining inventories and adverse weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, which is hampering harvest progress and raising supply concerns.
Summary:
> Domestic robusta prices rise to 115,600 - 116,700 VND/kg.
> London robusta futures (Jan 2026) surge to 4,610 USD/ton.
> Global coffee inventories drop to multi-month lows.
> Heavy rains in Vietnam disrupt harvest and threaten next season’s crop.
> Market sentiment remains bullish, but a short-term correction is possible if resistance levels are tested.
Domestic coffee prices extended their upward momentum on October 30, supported by strong gains on the London exchange and tightening global inventories.
In the morning of October 30, coffee prices across Vietnam’s Central Highlands continued to climb by 800 - 1,000 VND/kg, reaching 115,600 - 116,700 VND/kg. The average domestic price stood at 116,500 VND/kg, about 4,800 VND/kg (equivalent to USD 182/ton) lower than the January 2026 robusta futures price on the London exchange.
At the close of trading on Wednesday (October 29), robusta coffee futures for November 2025 on the London ICE exchange surged to USD 4,585/ton, up 3.36% (+USD 149/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also rose sharply by 3.25% (+USD 145/ton) to USD 4,610/ton. Converted at the current exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,320 VND, the January 2026 robusta futures price equals approximately 121,300 VND/kg.
Global coffee prices rallied strongly on October 29 amid declining inventories. ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to 446,475 bags, the lowest in 1.5 years, while robusta inventories fell to 6,111 lots, marking a three-month low.
Meanwhile, heavy rains and flooding across Vietnam, particularly in the Central Highlands, are disrupting coffee harvesting and threatening the next crop’s development.
Ms. Nguyen Thu Hien, a farmer from Buon Ho (Dak Lak), told Thanh Nien newspaper that persistent rainfall has caused ripe cherries to crack, rot, or fall off, resulting in significant losses. “Labor costs have doubled or even tripled due to the bad weather. We tried to harvest when the rain stopped briefly, but the storms returned before we could make progress,” she shared.
Mr. Ly Thong Ha from Di Linh (Lam Dong) echoed similar concerns, saying this is the wettest harvest season in memory. “The constant rain disrupts not only harvesting but also the flowering cycle. Some trees are blooming before the cherries are even picked, leading to uneven fruiting and potentially lower yields next season,” he said.
The sharp decline in ICE robusta inventories, combined with harvest disruptions in Vietnam, continues to provide bullish momentum for global prices. As of now, the January 2026 contract has surged for two consecutive sessions, testing key resistance levels between USD 4,650 - 4,700/ton, while technical support remains near USD 4,500/ton.
Technical indicators, such as the RSI, suggest the market is approaching overbought territory, though no clear correction signal has emerged. Hence, the uptrend remains dominant.
Forecast: Robusta prices on the London exchange are expected to extend their gains or consolidate at higher levels in the October 30 session. The January 2026 contract is likely to trade between USD 4,590 - 4,680/ton, with a projected closing price around USD 4,650/ton, up roughly USD 40 (+0.9%) from October 29.
However, analysts caution that if prices break above USD 4,700/ton without strong follow-through buying, a technical correction could occur early next week.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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