Vietnam coffee prices drop by VND 2,000 - 2,500/kg on October 7

VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam continued to decline on October 7, with robusta beans in the Central Highlands falling by VND 2,000 - 2,500 per kilogram, to VND 114,300 - 115,100/kg.

Summary:

> Domestic robusta prices in Central Highlands down VND 2,000 - 2,500/kg to VND 114,300 - 115,100/kg.

> London ICE November 2025 futures fell 1.23% to US$4,471/ton; January 2026 down 1.27% to US$4,464/ton.

> Domestic prices are VND 3,000/kg lower than London futures.

> ICE-certified inventories continue to decline - arabica at 1.5-year low, robusta at 2.5-month low.

> Traders await U.S. - Brazil tariff negotiations that could affect global prices.

> Technical buying and low stocks may support a short-term rebound.

> Forecast: Robusta November 2025 contract may rise to US$4,500 - 4,571/ton (+US$49 - 100).

On the international market, robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange closed lower on October 6, marking a pullback after recent gains. The November 2025 contract fell by 1.23% (-US$56) to US$4,471/ton, while the January 2026 contract declined by 1.27% (-US$58) to US$4,464/ton.

Converted to Vietnamese currency, the November 2025 robusta contract is valued at around VND 117,800/kg.

With the average domestic price at VND 114,800/kg, local robusta is currently trading at a discount of VND 3,000/kg (equivalent to US$113.81/ton) compared to London futures, based on the current exchange rate of VND 26,360 per US dollar.

International coffee prices remain highly sensitive to market news, as traders await the outcome of ongoing talks between the U.S. and Brazil regarding a possible removal of the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports.

Meanwhile, ICE-monitored coffee inventories continue to tighten:

𑇐 Arabica stocks fell to a 1.5-year low at 535,136 bags as of October 6.

𑇐 Robusta stocks declined to a 2.5-month low at 6,333 lots.

Weather conditions in key coffee-growing regions such as Minas Gerais (Brazil) and Vietnam’s Central Highlands have shown no significant new developments affecting crop outlooks.

However, analysts note:

Technical buying and short-covering could emerge, as the robusta market has experienced strong volatility in recent sessions, potentially triggering a modest rebound.

Low certified stocks provide a fundamental support base, with buyers concerned about tight near-term supply.

Forecast:

The London robusta November 2025 contract is expected to edge higher, trading between US$4,500 - 4,571/ton, representing a gain of US$49 - 100 from the October 6 close.

NPK/ Vinagri News