VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to show strong export performance. The average export price in September 2025 was around $5,679/ton, up 3.8% from August and 1.7% from September 2024. For the first nine months, the average export price is estimated at $5,658/ton, representing a 45.3% increase compared to the same period last year.
Summary:
> London ICE Robusta November 2025 contract closed at $4,322/ton, down 1.83%, while January 2026 fell 1.43% to $4,325/ton.
> Vietnam domestic Robusta prices dropped sharply by VND 2,000 - 2,500/kg, averaging VND 115,400/kg, narrowing the gap with London futures to only VND 1,400/kg.
> September 2025 exports reached 84,000 tons valued at $477 million, up 63.5% in volume and 66.3% in value year-on-year.
> 9-month exports (Jan - Sep 2025): 1.23 million tons, $6.98 billion, up 11.1% in volume and 61.4% in value YoY.
> Average export price in September: $5,679/ton (+3.8% MoM, +1.7% YoY).
> Robusta production outlook: Brazil rising to 24.7 million bags, Vietnam steady at 30 million bags, signaling growing competition.
> Potential harvest delays in Vietnam due to heavy rains from Typhoon Matmo.
> Short-term outlook: Robusta prices likely to remain under downward pressure, projected at $4,300 - 4,320/ton in next session.
Key points
London ICE Robusta November 2025 contract closed at $4,322/ton, down 1.83% (81 USD/ton) on October 2, while the January 2026 contract declined 1.43% (63 USD/ton) to $4,325/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese Dong, the November 2025 contract stands at VND 114,000/kg (exchange rate: 1 USD = 26,384 VND).
Local Robusta prices in the Central Highlands dropped sharply by VND 2,000 - 2,500/kg, averaging VND 115,400/kg, narrowing the gap with the London November contract to only VND 1,400/kg (approx. $53/ton).
Vietnam’s coffee exports in September 2025 reached 84,000 tons, valued at $477 million, up 63.5% in volume and 66.3% in value compared to September 2024.
Cumulative exports for the first nine months of 2025 are projected at 1.23 million tons, with a turnover of nearly $6.98 billion, up 11.1% in volume and 61.4% in value year-on-year.
The country’s coffee cultivation area reached 764.4 thousand hectares by September 2025, up 16.6 thousand hectares (2.3%) year-on-year, driven by profitable crops in the past two seasons. The majority of Vietnam’s coffee plantations are located in the Central Highlands, accounting for 90 - 92% of the total area, with key provinces including Đắk Lắk, Lâm Đồng, Đắk Nông, and Gia Lai. Robusta remains the dominant variety, covering over 90% of the planted area.
On the international front, Rabobank forecasts Brazil’s Robusta production at 24.7 million bags (60-kg) in 2025, up sharply from 19 million bags in 2020. Meanwhile, USDA estimates Vietnam’s Robusta output for 2025/26 at around 30 million bags, indicating that Brazil is steadily approaching Vietnam’s position as the world’s largest Robusta producer.
Weather conditions may affect Vietnam’s harvest timing this year. Heavy rains from consecutive storms, including Typhoon Matmo (Storm No. 11) entering the South China Sea, could impact the Central Highlands in the coming days, potentially delaying harvests.
Short-term price pressure on Robusta coffee is expected due to rising supply and favorable weather conditions in major producing countries. Additionally, the weakening Brazilian real may encourage farmers to sell, further boosting exports but also contributing to downward price pressure. The partial U.S. government shutdown could also affect trading activity on global markets.
As a result, Robusta prices on the London ICE for November 2025 contracts are projected to remain under mild downward pressure, with estimated closing prices in the range of $4,300 - $4,320/ton for October 3, 2025.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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