VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s rice import value surged to USD 1.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025, even as exports declined, causing the country’s trade surplus to drop to just over USD 2 billion, down 38.7% year-on-year.
Summary:
> In the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam spent USD 1.5 billion importing rice, while exports declined in value, causing the trade surplus to shrink 38.7% to just over USD 2 billion. Despite the Philippines temporarily halting imports, Vietnam exported 7 million tons worth USD 3.55 billion, down 18.5% year-on-year.
> The sharp rise in imports - estimated at 3 million tons - was due to reduced domestic production from smaller cultivation areas and lower yields. Much of the imported rice is low-grade or paddy from Cambodia, used for processing or boosting export volumes.
> According to the USDA, Vietnam is set to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter in 2025 (8 million tons) and also the second-largest importer (4 million tons).
> Domestically, prices remained firm despite global declines, driven by limited supply and delayed harvests. Experts warn that heavy reliance on imports may pressure local prices during harvests and stress the need to shift toward high-quality, value-added rice production.
> By 2030, Vietnam aims to raise branded premium rice to 45% of exports and expand to high-end markets like the U.S., EU, Japan, and South Korea.
Sharp increase in rice imports
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), despite the Philippines - Vietnam’s largest rice buyer - temporarily halting imports, the country still exported 600,000 tons of rice worth USD 288 million in September. Cumulatively, rice exports reached 7 million tons in the first nine months, up 0.1% in volume but down 18.5% in value to USD 3.55 billion compared to the same period in 2024.
Notably, the trade surplus in rice stood at USD 2.04 billion, marking a sharp decline of 38.7% from last year. This means Vietnam spent about USD 1.51 billion to import rice during the period - equivalent to around 3 million tons, based on the average export price of USD 509/ton - a record-high figure.
MARD attributed this shift partly to shrinking cultivation areas. The summer-autumn crop area fell 0.5%, the autumn-winter crop 3.3%, and the seasonal crop 0.2%, mainly due to crop conversion for higher-value yields and urban development. Additionally, summer-autumn rice productivity dropped 1.2%, with production declining 1.4% to 10.9 million tons. The Northern region was particularly affected by adverse weather and storms, while in the Mekong Delta, some provinces have delayed autumn-winter planting.
Industry sources note that falling paddy prices and rising flood levels have prompted many farmers to flood their fields for soil enrichment in preparation for the next crop.
Experts estimate Vietnam’s rice supply can sustainably support only around 6 million tons of exports annually. Yet in recent years, exports have surged, reaching a record 9.2 million tons in 2024, with the shortfall offset by imports - particularly low-grade rice from India for feed and processing, and paddy from Cambodia to boost export volumes.
The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) estimates Vietnam imported 3 million tons of paddy from Cambodia in 2023, increasing to 3.8 million tons in 2024. In just the first two months of 2025, imports reached nearly 1.1 million tons of paddy, equivalent to 600,000 tons of rice. This helps stabilize supply and highlights Vietnam’s growing role as a regional rice trader.
According to a USDA report published in May, Vietnam is forecast to surpass Thailand in 2025 to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter with 8 million tons, behind India (24 million tons). Conversely, Vietnam is also projected to become the second-largest rice importer, with 4 million tons, trailing only the Philippines.
Impact on domestic market
In September, both domestic and global rice prices remained subdued as the Philippines extended its import suspension and considered increasing import taxes. As a result, global rice prices dropped by USD 1- 6/ton, depending on the variety.
In the Mekong Delta, Mr. Nguyễn Vĩnh Trọng, Director of Việt Hưng Co., Ltd. (Đồng Tháp), said prices are falling due to the Philippines’ extended suspension, though demand from Africa and Malaysia has helped limit declines. Exporters are now adjusting their markets while monitoring policy shifts in the Philippines, which may reopen imports earlier than expected due to adverse weather and nearing harvest completion.
Data shows Vietnam’s rice exports to the Philippines fell 16.4% by August, while exports to Ghana rose 59% and Côte d’Ivoire nearly 95.5%. The sharpest growth was in Bangladesh, up 165-fold.
Despite falling world prices, domestic rice prices increased by 83 - 164 VND/kg, driven by tight local supply and limited imports from Cambodia. The new harvest is expected from late October to early November.
According to Mr. Phạm Thái Bình, Chairman of Trung An Hi-Tech Agriculture JSC (Cần Thơ), importing low-grade rice for processing while exporting premium varieties improves profitability. However, in years of weak demand like 2025, imports may exacerbate domestic oversupply and depress prices, particularly during peak harvests.
He cautioned that shrinking cultivated areas and delayed crops may challenge supplies in early 2026, while high global inventories could weigh on prices. Therefore, Vietnam should prioritize economic efficiency over sheer export volume by focusing on high-quality rice production and value-added exports. He also noted slow implementation of the 1-million-hectare low-emission high-quality rice project, which hampers enterprise-farmer cooperation and access to credit.
Outlook
Currently, 60 - 70% of Vietnam’s exports are high-quality rice, 15% branded premium varieties, and 15% regular white rice. The VFA aims by 2030 to reduce regular white rice to below 10%, raise branded premium rice to 45%, and expand access to high-end markets such as the U.S., EU, Japan, and South Korea.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment