VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s cashew industry earned $3.77 billion from exports in the first nine months of 2025, up nearly 20% year-on-year and closing in on its $4.5 billion target. According to Vinacas, if the current growth momentum continues, total export turnover could even reach $5 billion this year.
Summary:
> September exports reached over 72,000 tons, worth $491 million.
> China surpassed the U.S. to become Vietnam’s largest cashew market.
> Average export prices in the first nine months rose 17.6% year-on-year.
> U.S. countervailing tariffs remain a major challenge.
> Strong global demand during the year-end festive season will likely boost exports.
Export value reaches $3.77 billion in nine months
According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam exported 72,440 tons of cashew kernels in September 2025, worth $491.29 million - up 4.2% in volume and 3.9% in value from August, and up 26.5% and 31.5%, respectively, compared with September 2024.
In total, the country shipped 554,760 tons of cashews worth $3.77 billion in the first nine months, an increase of 1.6% in volume and 19.5% in value year-on-year. This means the sector needs only about $730 million in the final quarter to meet the $4.5 billion target set by the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas). With the current growth trajectory, total exports could exceed $4.5 billion and even approach $5 billion by the end of the year.
Year-end demand expected to drive strong growth
Vinacas noted that the fourth quarter is traditionally the peak purchasing season for global buyers preparing for year-end holidays. Demand for nuts and plant-based snacks is rising globally, while export prices remain stable, offering favorable conditions for Vietnamese exporters.
According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), the average export price in September was $6,781 per ton, down slightly by 0.3% from August but still up 3.9% year-on-year. For the first nine months, the average price reached $6,801 per ton, up 17.6% from the same period last year - a clear sign of robust recovery in the global market.
China becomes top buyer as U.S. imports slow
In September, China, the U.S., the Netherlands, Germany, and the UAE were Vietnam’s top five export destinations, accounting for over 58% of total shipments.
China continued to lead the market, importing 17,300 tons worth nearly $111 million, up 41% month-on-month. In the first nine months, exports to China reached 125,690 tons, valued at $797.42 million, rising 37.4% in volume and 54.1% in value year-on-year.
Meanwhile, shipments to the United States showed slight recovery from August but remained well below last year’s levels. Between January and September, Vietnam exported 107,510 tons of cashews to the U.S., worth $721.28 million, down 28.8% in volume and 17.3% in value compared with 2024.
Other markets such as Germany, the UAE, and the U.K. posted solid growth, helping diversify Vietnam’s export base and reduce dependence on a few key buyers.
Tariff pressures from the U.S. and market shifts
According to Mr. Tạ Quang Huyên, Vice Chairman of Vinacas and Chairman & CEO of Hoang Son 1 JSC, U.S. countervailing tariffs of 20% have significantly reduced exports to this market. However, strong demand from China has helped offset the decline.
Commenting on U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to reduce tariffs to 0% on agricultural products that the U.S. does not produce domestically - such as coffee, pepper, and cashew - Mr. Huyên clarified that this remains under negotiation and has not yet been implemented.
He explained that the tariff burden mainly falls on U.S. importers or distributors, not directly on Vietnamese exporters. Nonetheless, higher tariffs have eroded the competitiveness of Vietnamese cashews against those from tax-favored countries.
Mr. Huyên added that U.S. demand remains stable, but importers are temporarily cautious as they work through existing inventories from the previous year. Should tariffs be reduced to 0%, U.S. purchases are expected to rebound sharply. Currently, Vietnamese cashews are priced at $3.2 - $3.3/kg, which rises to $3.7 - $3.8/kg after including the 20% tariff - still within a competitive range for the U.S. market.
Outlook: Strong finish expected for 2025
With robust global demand, stable prices, and surging sales to China, Vietnam’s cashew sector is well-positioned to exceed its 2025 export target. Industry experts believe the country could secure a new record, reaffirming Vietnam’s status as the world’s leading cashew exporter and a vital player in global nut supply chains.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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