VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices in Vietnam fell sharply on Thursday (Oct 24), tracking a steep decline in London futures as favorable weather in Brazil and Vietnam eased supply concerns. Analysts expect prices to stabilize around USD 4,500/ton after the sharp sell-off.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic robusta prices dropped VND 3,000/kg on October 24.
> London robusta futures fell nearly 4% amid improved weather in Brazil and Vietnam.
> Vicofa forecasts a 10% increase in Vietnam’s 2025 - 2026 coffee output.
> Market remains technically oversold; short-term rebound possible.
> Support level seen around USD 4,450 - 4,500/ton.
At the close of trading on Thursday (October 23), London robusta coffee futures tumbled sharply, with the November 2025 contract falling 3.89% (-USD 185) to USD 4,554/ton, while the January 2026 contract also declined 3.68% (-USD 173) to USD 4,521/ton.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the November 2025 contract was equivalent to VND 119,900/kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,330.
In the domestic market, robusta coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands - the country’s main growing region - fell sharply by VND 3,000/kg on October 24, trading between VND 114,100 and 115,500/kg. The average domestic price of VND 115,300/kg was about VND 4,600/kg (USD 175/ton) lower than the London November 2025 futures price.
The international coffee market saw heavy selling pressure on Thursday as improved weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions.
On the New York ICE exchange, Arabica coffee for December delivery (KCZ25) fell 10.70 cents (-2.53%) after reaching its highest level in 8.5 months earlier in the week. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee for November delivery (RMX25) on the London ICE exchange dropped USD 185 (-3.89%), retreating from a five-week high.
The sharp decline came after Brazil’s meteorological agency Climatempo forecasted weekend rains across key coffee-growing regions, which would help alleviate the prolonged drought conditions.
In Vietnam, the National Meteorological Agency reported that Storm Fengshen had weakened after making landfall, significantly reducing the risk of heavy rains in the Central Highlands, thereby minimizing potential crop damage.
On October 24, Bloomberg cited the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) as forecasting that the country’s 2025 - 2026 coffee crop could increase by about 10% year-on-year, assuming favorable weather persists. High coffee prices have encouraged farmers to invest more in crop care, which could improve yields.
Following the nearly 4% drop on October 23, the November 2025 robusta contract settled at USD 4,554/ton, the lowest level in over two weeks. Technical indicators suggest the market is now in oversold territory, which could trigger a short-term technical rebound.
Despite favorable weather weighing on prices, global demand remains steady, and ICE-certified robusta inventories are still relatively low - factors that may help maintain support levels near USD 4,450 - 4,500/ton.
Additionally, a slightly weaker US dollar and rebounding crude oil prices could lend some support to commodity prices, including coffee.
While the forecast of a 10% rise in Vietnam’s 2025 - 2026 coffee output adds medium-term downward pressure, it is unlikely to immediately affect short-term futures prices.
Outlook
Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange are expected to move sideways or slightly lower on October 24. The trading range for the November 2025 contract is projected between USD 4,480 and USD 4,600/ton. Prices may see a minor technical rebound early in the session, but are likely to close around USD 4,500/ton if selling pressure continues.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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