VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic robusta coffee prices rose slightly on October 14, while London futures surged sharply amid financial momentum and supply concerns in Brazil. The local market remains quiet as traders await the upcoming harvest in early November, with domestic prices still about $220 per ton below London’s November 2025 contract.
Summary:
> Domestic robusta prices rose by 600 - 700 VND/kg to 113,800 - 114,600 VND/kg.
> London November 2025 contract closed up 1.79% to $4,560/ton.
> Domestic prices remain 5,800 VND/kg (~$220/ton) lower than London futures.
> The gap reflects storage, financing, insurance, and certification costs embedded in futures prices.
> Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first nine months of 2025 rose 11.7% in volume and 62.2% in value, reaching nearly $7 billion.
Domestic market
Vietnam’s domestic robusta coffee prices increased slightly on October 14, rising by 600 - 700 VND/kg to a range of 113,800 - 114,600 VND/kg across the Central Highlands.
In the global market, London robusta futures for November 2025 closed the session on Monday (October 13) at $4,560 per ton, up 1.79% (+$80) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also climbed 1.73% (+$76) to $4,467 per ton.
Converted at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,356.5 VND, the November 2025 contract price equals roughly 120,200 VND/kg. This means that Vietnam’s domestic robusta price is currently 5,800 VND/kg (≈$220/ton) lower than the London futures level.
At mid-October, the domestic market remains quiet, as the new harvest is not expected to start in earnest until early November. Supply in farmers’ hands is limited, leading to thin trading activity. Meanwhile, London prices have risen sharply on financial drivers and concerns over Brazilian supply, factors that do not immediately translate into the physical Vietnamese market.
Local traders are cautious and refrain from pushing purchase prices higher in line with futures, fearing a potential global correction.
Explaining the price gap
The substantial difference between domestic and London futures prices reflects several components already included in futures values - such as storage, financing, price-risk hedging, insurance, international shipping, and the “premium” for ICE-certified coffee.
Domestic spot prices, by contrast, represent the on-the-ground price paid to farmers or collectors, without added logistics or certification costs.
Exchange rate effects, financing conditions, and variations in coffee quality and moisture content also influence the price differential.
Exports and industry outlook
Vietnam’s coffee exports performed strongly in the first nine months of 2025 thanks to high world prices and shifting demand from major markets amid weather-related supply issues in Brazil and Indonesia. The country benefited from stable output and an expanding share of processed coffee products in total exports.
According to Vietnam Customs, September exports reached 81,100 tons, worth $462.3 million, down 3.5% in volume but up 0.5% in value from August. Compared with September 2024, exports rose 57.9% in volume and 61.1% in value.
For the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam exported nearly 1.24 million tons of coffee worth $7 billion, up 11.7% in volume and 62.2% in value year-on-year - already surpassing the $5.62 billion total for all of 2024.
The average export price in September reached $5,700 per ton, up 4.2% from August and 2% from a year earlier. For the nine-month period, the average stood at $5,655 per ton, an increase of 45.2% year-on-year.
Global market dynamics
On the London robusta exchange, certified stocks remain low at 6,237 lots, limiting near-term selling pressure. The market is reacting positively to dry conditions in Brazil and supply concerns for the next crop, both seen as bullish factors.
Technical indicators on Investing.com currently show a “Strong Buy” signal for London robusta, suggesting continued support.
However, broader macroeconomic headwinds - including a strong USD, high interest rates, and global economic uncertainty - could cap further gains if weather conditions in Brazil improve.
Overall, the market is expected to close slightly higher or stable on October 14, with key resistance levels at $4,600 - $4,650 per ton and support around $4,400 - $4,450 per ton, barring any major new developments.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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