VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam dropped by VND 500/kg on October 10, while London robusta futures continued to edge higher. Weather forecasts for rain in Brazil and easing supply concerns are weighing on the market.
At the close of trading on Thursday (October 9), London robusta coffee futures for November 2025 rose by 0.57% (+US$26) to US$4,568 per tonne, while the January 2026 contract slipped slightly by 0.26% (-US$12) to US$4,472 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the November 2025 robusta contract price reached approximately VND 120,300 per kilogram.
Domestic market
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands - the country’s main coffee-growing region - domestic robusta prices edged down by VND 500/kg on October 10, settling between VND 113,800 and VND 114,600 per kilogram, with an average of VND 114,300/kg.
At this level, domestic prices remain about VND 6,000/kg (US$228/tonne) lower than London’s November 2025 futures contract, based on the current exchange rate of US$1 = VND 26,350.
Global market dynamics
As of October 9, ICE-certified arabica inventories had fallen to 519,534 bags - their lowest in 18 months - while robusta stocks dropped to 6,237 lots, the lowest in two and a half months.
The recent 50% U.S. import tariff on Brazilian coffee has prompted importers to cancel new contracts, tightening domestic supplies and adding volatility to global markets.
Weather and trade sentiment
Prices eased as forecasts for rainfall in Brazil helped calm concerns over supply disruptions. Meanwhile, ongoing talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have raised expectations of improving trade relations.
According to Ilya Byzov, quantitative trader at Sucafina, “The market had been nervous due to recent hot and dry conditions, but weather in Brazil is now normalizing and supporting the main flowering phase of coffee trees.”
Meteorologist Nadiara Pereira from Climatempo noted that rains are expected to move from São Paulo through Alta Mogiana and southern Minas Gerais later this week, with heavier rainfall on Thursday and Friday. Some areas could receive over 30 mm, sufficient to spur flowering.
Similarly, Rabobank reported that the long-awaited rains forecasted for Brazil’s arabica belt “will support flowering and exert downward pressure on prices.”
Vietnam outlook
In Vietnam - the world’s leading robusta producer - the current harvest is expected to increase by 10 - 15% year-on-year thanks to favorable weather conditions, according to trade sources.
Currency and export factors
Aside from weather and stock movements, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, as well as the GBP/USD and BRL/USD exchange rates, are expected to heavily influence trading sentiment. Export pace from both Vietnam and Brazil will also be key in shaping price movement during the session.
Price forecast
Analysts expect London robusta November 2025 futures to trade within the US$4,560 - 4,620/tonne range by the end of October 10, with possible intraday fluctuations of 0–1%.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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