VINAGRI News - Despite a sharp rebound in global Robusta coffee prices on October 8, domestic prices in Vietnam rose only modestly by VND 1,000 per kilogram on October 9. The slow response reflects a lag between the futures and physical markets, stable exchange rates, and buyer pressure amid ample supply from Brazil and Indonesia.
Summary:
> London Robusta futures for November 2025 surged 128 USD/ton (+2.9%) to 4,542 USD/ton.
> Domestic prices in Vietnam edged up VND 1,000/kg to VND 114,300 - 115,100/kg, or about 38 USD/ton.
> The domestic - futures gap remains wide, with local prices about 4,900 VND/kg (≈186 USD/ton) lower.
> Exporters cite delayed transmission from global futures to local physical markets.
> ICE-monitored Robusta inventories fell to a 2.5-month low; Arabica stocks hit a 1.5-year low.
> Vietnam’s Robusta exports rose 10.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025.
> Robusta prices on the London exchange are expected to remain stable or rise slightly, trading between 4,540 - 4,640 USD/ton by the close of October 9.
Despite a strong surge in global Robusta coffee prices, Vietnam’s domestic market showed only modest gains on October 9.
At the close of trading on Wednesday, October 8, Robusta coffee futures for November 2025 on the London ICE exchange jumped sharply by 128 USD/ton (+2.9%) to 4,542 USD/ton, while January 2026 contracts gained 96 USD/ton (+2.19%) to 4,484 USD/ton. Converted to Vietnamese dong, the November contract equates to approximately VND 119,700/kg.
In contrast, domestic Robusta prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands edged up only VND 1,000/kg, reaching VND 114,300 - 115,100/kg. With an average of VND 114,800/kg, local prices remain about VND 4,900/kg (≈186 USD/ton) below the London futures price, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = VND 26,349.
According to exporters, this muted domestic response reflects a time lag between futures and physical markets, coupled with limited currency movement and buyer pressure amid abundant supply from Brazil and Indonesia.
Domestic trade has also been subdued, with dwindling on-farm stocks, cautious farmer selling, and exporters holding back purchases ahead of the new crop. However, if the London Robusta rally continues, local prices could gain further in the coming sessions.
ICE data show Arabica inventories have fallen to a 1.5-year low of 525,989 bags, while Robusta stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 6,237 lots, tightening overall supply.
While global fundamentals remain mixed - with tighter certified stocks but rising exports from Vietnam and favorable weather in Brazil - analysts expect Robusta futures to consolidate between 4,540 - 4,640 USD/ton by the close of trading on October 9.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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