VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices on the London ICE fell on Wednesday (Nov 26) as the European Parliament approved a one-year delay to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), easing concerns over supply restrictions. Domestic prices in Vietnam also softened slightly, while heavy rains and storm Koto threaten to further slow harvesting progress in the Central Highlands.
Summary:
> London robusta Jan 2026 closed at 4,513 USD/ton, down 46 USD.
> Vietnam domestic prices fell to 110,600 - 111,700 VND/kg.
> Domestic robusta trades at a 7,500 VND/kg (≈284 USD/ton) discount to futures.
> EU delays EUDR by one year, easing supply concerns and pressuring prices.
> ICE inventories continue to decline, offering partial support.
> Heavy rains and storm Koto threaten to further slow the Central Highlands harvest.
> Price outlook for Nov 27: narrow range 4,470 - 4,530 USD/ton, tendency to soften slightly.
Robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange closed lower on Wednesday (November 26). The January 2026 contract fell back to 4,513 USD/ton, down 1.00% (-46 USD/ton) from the previous session. Other maturities also declined, with the March 2026 contract slipping 0.83% (-37 USD/ton) to 4,377 USD/ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 robusta futures price is equivalent to 119,000 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,373.50 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, spot robusta prices on the morning of November 27 eased by 500 - 800 VND/kg, settling between 110,600 and 111,700 VND/kg. With an average price of 111,500 VND/kg, domestic robusta remains 7,500 VND/kg lower than the January 2026 futures price - a discount of approximately 284 USD/ton.
Robusta prices faced renewed pressure after the European Parliament approved a one-year postponement of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The regulation aims to curb deforestation linked to key import commodities such as soybeans, coffee and cocoa. The delay allows EU members to continue sourcing from regions in Africa, Indonesia and South America - areas still affected by deforestation - thereby keeping global coffee supplies more plentiful in the near term.
Meanwhile, ICE-monitored inventories continue to offer some support. U.S. import tariffs on Brazilian coffee have sharply reduced ICE stock levels. Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low at 398,645 bags last Thursday, while robusta inventories dropped to a 6.25-month low of 4,911 lots as of Wednesday.
According to Barchart, heavy rainfall is expected to persist in Vietnam’s Central Highlands - the country’s largest coffee-producing region - further slowing harvest progress.
In addition, tropical cyclone Koto intensified rapidly, reaching Category 12 with gusts up to Category 15 early on November 27. At 7 a.m., the storm’s center was located about 180 km north of Song Tử Tây Island with maximum sustained winds of 133 km/h, moving west-northwest at 15 km/h, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting. In the coming days, the storm’s circulation combined with cold air could bring moderate to heavy rainfall across the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s key robusta-growing area currently in peak harvest.
Looking ahead, January 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are expected to trade within a narrow range on November 27, with a bias toward mild declines or sideways movement. Prices are projected to fluctuate between 4,470 and 4,530 USD/ton, barring any unexpected extreme weather developments in Vietnam or significant changes in ICE inventory reports.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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