VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange fell sharply on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order removing the 40% import tariff on Brazilian food products, including coffee. Domestic prices in Vietnam also retreated, while market pressure increased due to a weaker Brazilian real, favorable weather forecasts in Brazil, and tightening inventories in the United States.
Summary:
> Robusta January 2026 contract on London fell to USD 4,506/ton (-2.69%).
> Domestic Vietnam robusta dropped to 111,600 - 112,700 VND/kg.
> U.S. removes 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, triggering global price declines.
> Brazilian real weakens to a 5-week low, increasing selling pressure.
> Heavy rain forecasts in Brazil support crop development, pushing prices down.
> Heavy rains in Vietnam delay harvest and pose risks to yields.
> U.S. coffee inventories tighten: arabica at 1.75 - year low, robusta at 4 - month low.
> U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee fell 52% (Aug - Oct) due to previous tariff.
> Domestic Vietnamese robusta remains 2,300 VND/kg higher than last week.
At the close of the trading session on Friday (November 21), online robusta coffee prices for the January 2026 contract on the London Exchange fell sharply to USD 4,506/ton, down 2.69% (-USD 125/ton) compared with the previous session. Other contracts also declined significantly, with the November 2025 contract dropping 2.37% (-USD 110/ton) to USD 4,521/ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 robusta contract price decreased to 118,700 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,352.96 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, robusta prices on the morning of November 22 fell by 1,800 - 2,300 VND/kg, down to 111,600 - 112,700 VND/kg.
With an average domestic price of 112,600 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta is currently 6,100 VND/kg lower than the January 2026 contract on the London exchange - equivalent to approximately USD 231/ton.
Coffee prices on both the New York and London exchanges declined sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Thursday removing import tariffs on Brazilian food products, including the previous 40% duty on coffee.
Additionally, the Brazilian real weakened to its lowest level in five weeks against the U.S. dollar, adding further pressure on coffee prices. A weaker real typically encourages Brazilian producers to accelerate selling. The USD ended the session at 5.40 real, up 1.2%. Forecasts of heavy rainfall in Brazil’s coffee - growing regions next week - supportive for crop development - also contributed to downward pressure. Climatempo reported that heavy rains will continue across major coffee regions next week.
Conversely, the robusta market received some support from prolonged heavy rains in Vietnam, which have delayed harvest activities in the Central Highlands, the country’s largest robusta-producing area. Continued rainfall raises concerns over potential yield losses.
However, coffee supply in the United States is tightening markedly. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to their lowest level in 1.75 years on Thursday, standing at 398,645 bags, while robusta inventories dropped to a four-month low of 5,567 lots on Friday. The previous tariff regime discouraged many U.S. roasters from signing new contracts with Brazil, causing imports from the country to fall 52% between August and October compared with the same period last year.
Overall, despite several fluctuations this week, end-of-week domestic robusta prices in Vietnam remain 2,300 VND/kg higher than last week.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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