VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam edged up slightly on November 6 amid rising global robusta futures. Weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam, coupled with falling global stock levels, continue to support the market, though technical profit-taking may limit gains.
Summary:
> Domestic robusta prices increased by ₫300 - ₫400/kg to ₫118,200 - ₫119,300/kg.
> London robusta futures (Jan 2026) rose 0.11% to $4,686/tonne.
> Weather risks in Brazil and Typhoon Kalmaegi in Vietnam support prices.
> ICE coffee inventories fell to multi-month lows.
> Expected trading range: $4,670 - $4,740/tonne; upside possible if typhoon damage worsens.
Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange rebounded slightly at the close of trading on Wednesday (November 5). The January 2026 contract edged up by 0.11% (+$5) to $4,686 per tonne, while the November 2025 contract increased by 1.01% (+$47) to $4,700 per tonne.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 robusta futures price currently stands at approximately ₫123,300 per kilogram, based on an exchange rate of $1 = ₫26,324.50.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices rose slightly by ₫300 - ₫400/kg on Thursday morning (November 6), reaching ₫118,200 - ₫119,300/kg. With an average price of ₫118,800/kg, domestic robusta prices are about ₫4,500/kg (approximately $171/tonne) lower than the January 2026 London futures contract.
Traders said global concerns over extreme weather conditions continue to support coffee prices. According to Somar Meteorologia, Brazil’s Minas Gerais - the country’s largest arabica-growing region - received only 33.4 mm of rainfall in the week ending October 31, equivalent to 75% of the historical average, following an almost rainless week prior.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall over southern Vietnam on Thursday or Friday, potentially damaging key robusta-growing regions.
According to the latest report from Thanh Niên, Typhoon Kalmaegi (Typhoon No. 13) is currently at its strongest, located about 290 km off the central Vietnamese coast. The storm is expected to hit Quảng Ngãi - Gia Lai provinces tonight, bringing heavy rain and strong winds over the coming days across the Central Highlands - right as the robusta harvest season peaks.
Falling coffee stock levels have also lent support to prices. The United States’ recent 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee has sharply reduced global inventories. As of Wednesday, ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to a 1.75-year low of 429,770 bags, while robusta stocks fell to a 3.5-month low of 6,036 lots.
However, traders also noted that around 150,000 bags (60 kg each) of arabica coffee are currently being shipped from Brazil to ICE warehouses in Europe to replenish stocks, which are at their lowest level in 18 months, even as global coffee prices hover near record highs.
Looking ahead, robusta prices on the ICE London exchange are expected to move sideways or rise slightly within a narrow range on November 6, supported by tight supply and weather-related risks but tempered by potential profit-taking activity.
Projected range: $4,670 - $4,740 per tonne for the January 2026 contract.
If Typhoon Kalmaegi causes significant damage in Vietnam’s Central Highlands (as confirmed by late evening reports on November 6), prices could rise to $4,730 - $4,750 per tonne. Conversely, if the storm’s impact is minimal and additional Brazilian supply arrives promptly, prices may ease back to around $4,670 per tonne.
NPK/Vinagri News
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