VINAGRI News - Global coffee exchanges reopen on Monday (Nov 17) amid continued weakness in robusta prices, driven by expectations of higher supply from Vietnam and shifting U.S. tariff policies. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam also extend their decline, while analysts forecast a slight further drop in London robusta futures during today’s session.
Summary:
> Global coffee markets reopen today at 4 p.m. Vietnam time.
> London January 2026 robusta futures: USD 4,223/t, New York December 2025 arabica: 881.30 c/lb.
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices fell to 108,500 - 110,500 VND/kg, marking the sharpest weekly drop of the crop year.
> Robusta prices are under pressure due to higher expected Vietnamese output and U.S. tariff changes.
> Weather in the Central Highlands remains favorable for harvesting.
> VICOFA notes recent price drops are short-term reactions; long-term supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive.
> Today’s robusta futures are forecast to trade within USD 4,100 - 4,300/t, with potential easing toward USD 4,150/t.
Global coffee markets open for the week on Monday (November 17) at 4 p.m. Vietnam time, with ICE New York (Arabica) and ICE London (Robusta) beginning their first trading session of the week.
At the close of last Friday’s session, January 2026 Robusta futures stood at USD 4,223 per tonne, while December 2025 Arabica futures settled at USD 881.30 per tonne.
Converted to Vietnamese VND, January 2026 Robusta futures are currently equivalent to 111,200 VND/kg, based on the prevailing exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,350.50 VND.
Domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands on the morning of November 17 extended a slight decline of 200 VND/kg, trading at 108,500 - 110,500 VND/kg. With an average price of 110,300 VND/kg, domestic robusta remains 900 VND/kg lower than the January 2026 London futures contract (a discount of approximately USD 34 per tonne).
Last week marked the steepest decline in domestic coffee prices since the start of the new crop year, falling from 119,300 VND/kg to 110,300 VND/kg within seven days. The trend mirrors price movements on the ICE London exchange, where January 2026 Robusta futures plunged 9.15% to USD 4,223 per tonne.
The sharp drop in robusta prices is attributed mainly to two factors:
𑇐 Anticipated higher robusta output in Vietnam, supported by confirmation that storm Kalmaegi caused no damage to Central Highlands coffee-growing areas.
𑇐 Changes in U.S. tariff policy, after President Donald Trump removed reciprocal tariffs on several food items - including coffee - affecting major exporters such as Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam.
Weather forecasts for the Central Highlands this week indicate favorable conditions for harvesting, with only light afternoon showers and no significant disruptions expected.
Commenting on the U.S. tariff changes, Nguyễn Nam Hải, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), noted that earlier projections suggested U.S.–Brazil trade tensions would shift coffee flows in favor of Vietnam. “With the U.S. now removing tariffs on coffee, market conditions essentially return to their previous state,” he said.
“Speculators have recently offloaded positions, triggering persistent price declines on international exchanges. However, this is only a short-term reaction; the broader outlook remains positive as supply continues to lag behind global demand,” Hải added.
For the November 17 trading session, January 2026 Robusta futures on ICE London are expected to range between USD 4,100 and 4,300 per tonne, with a slight bearish bias toward around USD 4,150 per tonne unless unexpected supportive news emerges.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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