VINAGRI News - As global coffee exchanges reopen this Monday (November 10), robusta futures on the London ICE market are expected to edge higher to around USD 4,700 - 4,750 per tonne, driven by persistent supply shortages and weather-related disruptions in key producing regions.
Summary:
> Robusta January 2026 futures closed last week at USD 4,648/tonne; expected to rise slightly today.
> Domestic Vietnamese prices: VND 118,200 - 119,700/kg, up by 100 - 200 VND.
> ICE inventories: Arabica at 1.75-year low, Robusta at 3.5-month low.
> U.S. 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee worsens supply shortage.
> Colombian output fell 10% YoY in October 2025.
> Vietnam faces weather-related harvest challenges but enjoys strong yields.
> Brazil’s Minas Gerais region hit by heavy rain and hail, threatening future production.
Major coffee exchanges around the world, including ICE New York (Arabica) and ICE London (Robusta), will open for the first trading session of the week at around 4:00 p.m. (Vietnam time).
At the close of last Friday’s session, robusta futures for January 2026 settled at USD 4,648 per tonne, while arabica futures for December 2025 stood at USD 8,989 per tonne.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 robusta futures price equals approximately VND 122,200 per kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,301.50.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands - the country’s main coffee-producing region - domestic coffee prices rose slightly by VND 100 - 200 per kg on the morning of November 10, ranging between VND 118,200 and 119,700 per kg. With an average of VND 119,400 per kg, domestic robusta prices remain about VND 2,800 per kg (≈ USD 106 per tonne) lower than the London January 2026 futures price.
As of November 7, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to their lowest level in 1.75 years at 417,478 bags, while robusta inventories declined to a 3.5-month low of 5,926 lots. This tightening in supply is largely due to the United States imposing a 50% tariff on coffee imports from Brazil, which has led many importers to cancel new contracts and caused a drop in U.S. inventories.
According to the National Coffee Federation of Colombia (FNC), Colombia’s coffee production in October 2025 reached 1.2 million bags (60 kg each) - a 10% decrease compared with the same month last year.
In Vietnam, farmers in the Central Highlands are in the midst of peak harvest season. Recent heavy rains and storms have caused some logistical difficulties, but producers remain optimistic as both yields and prices are favorable this year.
Conversely, in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil, heavy rainfall and hailstorms over the weekend damaged many coffee farms, sparking concerns over future yields. Experts have urged immediate action to prevent plant diseases and rehabilitate affected trees.
Market outlook
Robusta futures for January 2026 on the ICE London exchange are expected to rise slightly in the November 10 trading session, possibly reaching USD 4,700 - 4,750 per tonne, as supply shortages remain evident and market fundamentals continue to support higher prices.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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