VINAGRI News - London robusta coffee prices edged slightly lower on Tuesday (Nov 11) but are expected to rebound as technical support holds near USD 4,600 per tonne. Meanwhile, strong arabica prices and tightening ICE inventories continue to support the overall coffee market.
Summary:
> London robusta futures (Jan 2026) closed down 0.10% at USD 4,618/tonne.
> Vietnam domestic robusta prices fell to VND 117,300 - 118,500/kg.
> Arabica prices hit a 3-week high on a stronger Brazilian real.
> Global exports down 0.3% and ICE inventories near record lows support prices.
> Roasters may substitute robusta for arabica as arabica prices surge.
> Short-term outlook: robusta likely to rebound toward USD 4,650 - 4,660/tonne.
At the close of trading on Tuesday (November 11), London robusta coffee futures for January 2026 delivery continued to edge lower to USD 4,618 per tonne, down USD 5 (-0.10%) from the previous session. The November 2025 contract also dipped slightly by USD 5 (-0.10%) to USD 4,632 per tonne.
Converted to local currency, the January 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to VND 121,600 per kilogram, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,345.50.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of November 12 continued to decline slightly by VND 300 - 500 per kilogram, to a range of VND 117,300 - 118,500 per kilogram. With an average of VND 118,200 per kilogram, domestic robusta prices are currently VND 3,400 per kilogram (around USD 129 per tonne) lower than the London January 2026 futures price.
Arabica prices, meanwhile, rose to their highest level in nearly three weeks amid the strength of Brazil’s real, which reached a 17-month high. The stronger real discouraged Brazilian farmers from selling beans for export, providing additional price support. In contrast, robusta came under slight pressure as initial assessments indicated no significant damage to Vietnam’s coffee-growing regions following Typhoon Kalmaegi.
Global coffee prices remain supported by ICO data, showing world coffee exports in the 2024/2025 crop year declined 0.3% year-on-year to 138.66 million bags.
Adding to the bullish tone, ICE coffee inventories continue to fall sharply. The U.S. 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee has led U.S. buyers to cancel new orders, tightening supply - a concern as one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee imports come from Brazil. As of November 11, ICE arabica inventories fell to 406,129 bags, the lowest in 18 months, while robusta inventories dropped to a four-month low of 5,873 lots.
Although the market expects about 150,000 bags of arabica to be added to ICE warehouses in the coming months, Hedgepoint analyst Laleska Moda noted that “to bring inventories back to safe levels, the market needs more substantial supply inflows - therefore, prices are likely to remain supported in the short term.”
In Brazil, Hedgepoint analysts projected a slight decline in robusta output in the next crop year following a record 2025/2026 harvest.
“After a bumper crop, coffee trees typically weaken, leading to a modest yield drop the following year. Farmers often prune to rejuvenate productivity for the next cycle (2027/2028),” Moda explained.
However, the expanded robusta planting areas in Espírito Santo and Bahia are expected to partially offset this decline.
In Vietnam, farmers are entering the peak coffee harvest season, though frequent rains in the coming days are likely to slow harvesting progress and affect bean quality.
Meanwhile, arabica prices remain high, with the December 2025 contract on the New York exchange surging to nearly USD 9,320 per tonne. When arabica prices rise sharply, roasters often shift toward greater use of robusta to reduce input costs - a phenomenon known as the “substitution effect.”
For the November 12 trading session on the ICE London exchange, robusta futures for January 2026 are expected to rebound slightly after testing the technical support level at USD 4,600 per tonne. If technical buying persists, prices could recover toward USD 4,650 - 4,660 per tonne. However, if profit-taking pressure resumes, the market may hover around USD 4,610 - 4,620 per tonne before establishing a new short-term trend.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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