VINAGRI News - London Robusta coffee futures continued to fall sharply on November 12, while domestic prices in Vietnam also dropped significantly. Despite short-term pressure, the market is closely watching La Niña risks and potential weather impacts on Brazil’s upcoming crops.
Summary:
> London Robusta prices fell 5.45% to USD 4,366 per tonne on November 12.
> Domestic Vietnamese coffee prices dropped to VND 111,500 - 113,500/kg.
> ICE inventories continued to decline, while Brazil’s exports fell 20.4% in October.
> La Niña risks and high temperatures in Brazil remain key market concerns.
> Prices may see a mild technical rebound in the next session, within USD 4,300 - 4,450 per tonne.
At the close of trading on Wednesday (November 12), London ICE Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 delivery continued to fall sharply to USD 4,366 per tonne, down 5.45% (-USD 252) from the previous session. Other contracts also declined significantly, with the November 2025 contract dropping 5.17% (-USD 240) to USD 4,392 per tonne.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 Robusta contract stood at approximately VND 114,950 per kilogram, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,329.99.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of November 13 plunged by VND 4,800 - 5,800 per kilogram, to between VND 111,500 and 113,500 per kilogram.
With an average of VND 113,300 per kilogram, domestic Robusta prices were about VND 1,650 per kilogram (around USD 63 per tonne) lower than the January 2026 futures contract on the London exchange.
Coffee inventories on the ICE exchange continued to decline sharply following the 50% import tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee, which has discouraged American importers from signing new contracts. ICE Arabica stocks fell to a 1.5-year low of 404,930 bags, while Robusta inventories dropped to 5,873 lots, the lowest in nearly four months.
Experts noted that despite the steep price correction, the market remains focused on weather risks in the Southern Hemisphere. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised the probability of a La Niña event forming between October and December to 71%, which could trigger severe drought in Brazil and affect the 2026/2027 coffee crop.
Agricultural expert Jonas Leme Ferraresso stated that current coffee farms are not yet facing water stress, but persistently high temperatures remain a critical factor to monitor, as they could negatively impact yields in both the 2026 and 2027 harvests.
According to data released by Brazil’s Coffee Export Council (Cecafé) on November 12, green coffee exports in October totaled 3.83 million 60-kg bags, down 20.4% year-on-year. Of this, Arabica coffee accounted for 3.385 million bags (down 12.9%), while Robusta (conilon/canéfora) exports plunged 51.9% to 446,700 bags.
Over the first ten months of 2025, Brazil’s total coffee exports reached 33.279 million bags, a 20.3% decrease from 41.769 million bags in the same period last year. In contrast, export revenue surged 27.6%, from USD 9.968 billion to USD 12.715 billion.
After three consecutive sessions of steep losses, the January 2026 Robusta contract has fallen 6.07% this week, from USD 4,648 to around USD 4,366 per tonne.
Technical charts indicate that prices have broken below the key support level of USD 4,400 per tonne, signaling short-term bearish momentum. However, the range of USD 4,300 - 4,350 per tonne remains an important technical support zone, which could trigger bargain-buying if no additional negative news emerges.
Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 on the London exchange are expected to trade narrowly on November 13, potentially showing a technical rebound after three sessions of heavy declines. Prices are projected to fluctuate between USD 4,300 and 4,450 per tonne, with the session likely to close around USD 4,400 - 4,420 per tonne.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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