VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices on London futures jumped sharply on Monday, November 17, supported by high U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee and declining ICE stock levels. Domestic prices in Vietnam also increased, but remain below London futures, reflecting continued supply constraints and strong international demand.
Summary:
> London Robusta January 2026 futures: USD 4,483/ton (+6.16%).
> Vietnamese domestic prices: VND 112,600 - 113,800/kg, lower than London futures by VND 4,700/kg.
> High U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee remain a major support factor.
> ICE inventories of Arabica and Robusta at multi-month lows.
> Market expected to remain supported with minor short-term corrections.
On Monday, November 17, London Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 delivery surged to USD 4,483/ton, up 6.16% (+USD 260/ton) from the previous Friday’s close. Other nearby contracts also saw strong gains, with November 2025 futures rising 4.80% (+USD 204/ton) to USD 4,453/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese Dong at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,370.50 VND, the January 2026 Robusta futures price is VND 118,200/kg.
Domestic prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands rose sharply on the morning of November 18, by VND 3,200 - 4,100/kg, reaching VND 112,600 - 113,800/kg. With an average price of VND 113,500/kg, local Robusta remains VND 4,700/kg lower than January 2026 London futures, equivalent to a difference of around USD 178/ton.
The market is supported by persistent high tariffs on Brazilian coffee in the U.S. While the Trump administration removed the 10% reciprocal tariff on non-U.S. commodities, including coffee, the additional 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee remains due to “national emergency” measures. For Vietnam, even with a 10% reciprocal tariff reduction, exports would still face a 10% duty.
Falling ICE coffee inventories provide further support. Arabica stocks monitored by ICE dropped to a 1.75-year low of 400,790 bags on Monday, while Robusta inventories fell to a 4-month low of 5,648 lots. High U.S. tariffs have prompted buyers to cancel new contracts with Brazil, tightening U.S. supply, as Brazil accounts for roughly one-third of unroasted coffee imports. From August to October, U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee declined 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.
The sharp 6.16% rise in Robusta futures indicates strong buying momentum. Typically, after a significant rally, prices may undergo minor short-term corrections but are expected to remain high due to robust fundamental support.
For the November 18 session, Robusta January 2026 futures on London are expected to remain near current highs, fluctuating around USD 4,480 - 4,500/ton, with potential minor short-term adjustments from profit-taking. Overall, fundamental factors continue to favor upward price support rather than downward pressure.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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