VINAGRI News - Robusta futures on the London exchange rebounded strongly on November 20, supported by tightening ICE inventories and adverse weather in Vietnam, even as domestic prices continue to trade at a steep discount. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish in the short term, though easing U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee could temper further gains.
Summary:
> Robusta futures (Jan 2026) rose 2.55% to USD 4,631/ton on November 20.
> Domestic robusta prices: 113,600 - 115,000 VND/kg; still 7,400 VND/kg below London futures (USD 280/ton).
> ICE inventories continue to decline sharply, supporting global prices.
> Brazil - U.S. coffee trade: U.S. removes 40% tariff, potentially increasing Brazilian supply to America.
> Vietnam weather risks: Heavy rains delay harvest and threaten 2025 - 2026 output.
> Short-term outlook: London robusta expected to trade in USD 4,600 - 4,680/ton, with potential upside toward USD 4,700 on negative supply news.
Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange surged on Thursday (November 20), with the January 2026 contract climbing 2.55% (+USD 155) to USD 4,631 per metric ton. Other maturities also advanced sharply, with the November 2025 contract gaining 2.52% (+USD 114) to settle at USD 4,631.
Converted into Vietnamese VND, the January 2026 futures price eased to 122,100 VND per kilogram based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,376.50 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic robusta prices rose by 1,000 - 1,300 đồng per kilogram on November 21, reaching 113,600 - 115,000 VND per kilogram. With the average price standing at 114,700 VND per kilogram, domestic coffee remains 7,400 VND below the January 2026 London futures price - equivalent to a discount of about USD 280 per ton.
Global supply concerns continue to support the market. ICE-certified inventories have fallen sharply amid the U.S. tariff measures previously imposed on Brazilian coffee. Arabica stocks declined to 398,645 bags, the lowest in 1.75 years, while robusta stocks dropped to 5,640 lots, the lowest in four months.
From August to October, during the period when U.S. tariffs were in force, Brazil’s coffee exports to the United States plunged 52% to 983,970 bags, tightening U.S. domestic supply.
However, U.S. President Donald Trump has now formally removed the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef, coffee, and other agricultural goods as of November 20 - a reversal aimed at reducing food inflation. The move is expected to ease coffee prices and accelerate Brazilian shipments into the U.S. market, according to Reuters.
In Vietnam, prolonged heavy rainfall in the Central Highlands continues to delay harvesting and has caused widespread waterlogging, posing risks to 2025 - 2026 robusta output. Many smallholder farms have been flooded, and some coffee trees have been toppled, according to Winh Mlo, a farmer in Krông Bông district (Đắk Lắk). He warns that continued flooding could lead to root rot and crop damage as harvest approaches.
In recent months, Vietnam’s key growing regions have been hit by strong storms and persistent rainfall. Weather conditions are expected to remain unfavorable at least through Sunday, according to regional meteorological agencies cited by Bloomberg.
In the short term, London robusta prices remain supported by supply risks and low inventories. Even so, policy developments and supply-side news could quickly erode upward momentum. The removal of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee also introduces a bearish factor, as it may boost Brazil’s competitive positioning in the U.S. market.
In Vietnam, the wide domestic-to-London price gap of 7,400 VNĐ per kilogram (around USD 280 per ton) suggests subdued buying interest from exporters.
For the November 21 trading session, the January 2026 London robusta contract is expected to move within a range of USD 4,600 - 4,680 per ton. Should Vietnamese weather conditions deteriorate or new adverse news emerge from Brazil, prices could test the USD 4,700 level.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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