VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam rose sharply on November 4, tracking strong gains in London robusta futures, supported by tight supplies and adverse weather conditions affecting harvest progress.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic robusta prices rose to VND 118,200 - 119,500/kg, up VND 2,000 - 2,600/kg.
> London robusta futures (Jan 2026) gained 3.37% to USD 4,693/ton.
> Domestic prices remain VND 4,500/kg (USD 171/ton) lower than London futures.
> Tight inventories and bad weather support prices; profit-taking may limit further gains.
> Forecast for Nov 4: sideways to slightly higher, around USD 4,700 ± 30/ton.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices surged by VND 2,000 - 2,600 per kilogram on Tuesday (November 4), reaching VND 118,200 - 119,500/kg, in line with the strong rebound in global robusta futures.
On Monday (November 3), the benchmark London robusta futures contract for November 2025 jumped 3.51% (+USD 159) to USD 4,683 per ton, while the January 2026 contract climbed 3.37% (+USD 153) to USD 4,693 per ton.
Converted at the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,325, the January 2026 futures price equals VND 123,500/kg. This means domestic robusta prices in Vietnam, averaging VND 119,000/kg, are about VND 4,500/kg (or USD 171/ton) lower than London futures.
Two key factors - adverse weather and declining inventories - have driven the recent surge in coffee prices on both major exchanges. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 431,481 bags, while robusta stocks dropped to a 3.5-month low of 6,053 lots.
Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is currently moving across the central Philippines and is forecast to enter the East Sea early on November 5, becoming Typhoon No. 13. Meanwhile, another tropical depression has formed east of the Philippines and could strengthen into a new storm, adding further uncertainty to the ongoing coffee harvest in Vietnam.
Looking ahead, tight robusta supplies, persistent weather risks in Vietnam, and continued technical buying momentum are expected to keep London robusta futures (January 2026) on a slightly upward or sideways trend in the November 4 session. However, short-term profit-taking could limit further gains.
Expected price range: around USD 4,700 ± 30 per ton.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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