VINAGRI News - Coffee exchanges in New York and London reopen on Monday afternoon (Vietnam time) with a bullish tone, supported by sharply falling ICE inventories and delayed harvest progress in Vietnam. Domestic robusta prices declined sharply on the morning of December 1, widening the gap with London futures.
Summary:
> ICE-certified inventories have fallen sharply, reinforcing bullish sentiment on global markets.
> Vietnam’s harvest is only 15 - 20% complete due to prolonged storms, far below the usual pace.
> Domestic robusta prices dropped significantly and now trade below London futures by about 5,100 VND/kg.
> Brazil’s dry weather continues to raise concerns over arabica production.
> Robusta futures on ICE London are projected to post modest gains in Monday’s session.
Global coffee markets are set to open the first trading session of the week at around 4:00 PM (Vietnam time) on Monday, December 1, as ICE New York (Arabica) and ICE London (Robusta) begin their Monday trading. The previous session ended with robusta March 2026 futures on ICE London settling at 4,413 USD per ton, while arabica March 2026 on ICE New York closed at 8,404 USD per ton. Converted at the current exchange rate of 26,352.50 VND per USD, the robusta March 2026 contract is equivalent to roughly 116,300 VND per kilogram.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices dropped significantly on the morning of December 1, falling by 1,000 - 1,500 VND per kilogram to between 110,500 and 111,300 VND per kilogram. With an average of 111,200 VND per kilogram, domestic robusta prices are currently about 5,100 VND per kilogram lower than London’s March 2026 futures, equivalent to a discount of approximately 193 USD per ton. This price divergence highlights the pressure facing the domestic market amid volatile global movements.
Market sentiment continues to find support from declining ICE-monitored inventories. Arabica stocks decreased to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags as of last Thursday, while robusta stocks fell to a 6.5-month low of 4,530 lots last Friday. The persistent reduction in certified stocks underscores tightening supply conditions and remains a key bullish driver for futures markets.
Harvest progress in Vietnam remains significantly behind schedule. According to Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, farmers would normally have completed around 30% of the harvest by the end of November, but this year only 15 - 20% has been achieved. He attributed the delay to continuous storms and adverse weather throughout November 2025, which slowed ripening and made harvesting difficult. He noted that December is typically the peak harvest month, and this year the pressure will be even more intense, especially as labor shortages worsen and costs rise.
Despite short-term price volatility on futures exchanges, Mr. Minh emphasized that underlying global demand for coffee remains strong and the overall price environment continues to be favorable. He advised farmers not to make selling decisions based solely on short-term price swings, but instead to maintain supply relationships with reputable buyers and established trading partners. Ensuring high-quality harvesting practices, particularly by picking fully ripe cherries, remains crucial to preserving product quality.
Weather conditions continue to play an important role in shaping market sentiment. Although Storm No. 15 has weakened into a tropical depression, its remnants may still bring rainfall to parts of the Central Highlands. Forecasts indicate moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms across the region from December 2 to 4. Meanwhile, Brazil’s main arabica-growing region is facing increasing concerns over dryness. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received only 26.4 mm of rain in the week ending November 21, equivalent to just 49% of the historical average, raising fears of potential production losses.
Against this backdrop, robusta futures on ICE London are expected to open Monday’s session with a mildly bullish bias. The March 2026 contract may edge higher toward 4,430 - 4,450 USD per ton if supportive sentiment persists, while the January 2026 contract is likely to move within the 4,580 - 4,600 USD per ton range, provided that inventory declines and supply concerns remain intact.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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