VINAGRI News - Robusta futures on the London exchange extended their downward correction on December 1, while Vietnam’s domestic prices fell much more sharply due to early-crop selling pressure and cautious buying from exporters. Despite supportive fundamentals such as tightening ICE inventories and weather risks in Vietnam, technical selling continues to dominate in the short term. Robusta prices on December 2 are expected to move within a narrow to slightly weaker range.
Summary:
> London robusta (Mar 2026) closed at USD 4,338/ton, down USD 75.
> Vietnam domestic prices fell sharply to VND 106,500 - 107,100/kg.
> Domestic robusta trades at a USD 284/ton discount to futures.
> ICE inventories continue to decline, supporting prices.
> Weather risks in Vietnam exist but have limited short-term impact.
> Outlook for December 2: 4,300 - 4,380 USD/ton, with technical pressure still present.
Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange closed lower on Monday (December 1). The March 2026 contract fell to USD 4,338/ton, down 1.69% (-USD 75/ton) from the previous session. Other contracts also posted strong declines, with the January 2026 contract dropping 2.03% (-USD 93/ton) to USD 4,472/ton.
Based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,381 VND, the March 2026 robusta price is equivalent to VND 114,400/kg.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of December 2 plunged by VND 4,000 - 4,200/kg, settling at VND 106,500 - 107,100/kg. With an average price of VND 106,900/kg, domestic robusta is currently VND 7,500/kg lower than the March 2026 futures price - equal to a discount of roughly USD 284/ton.
Supportive fundamentals: ICE inventories sontinue to tighten
ICE-monitored inventories continued their sharp decline, providing underlying support for both arabica and robusta:
Arabica stocks dropped to 398,645 bags on November 20 - the lowest level in 1.75 years.
Robusta stocks fell to 4,342 lots, the lowest in nearly seven months as of Monday.
Weather risks in Vietnam
Robusta prices also found support from adverse weather conditions in Vietnam. Although the areas hit by heavy rain and storms are not extensive, analysts warn that they could still cause significant damage to the 2026/27 crop.
However, this risk is not strong enough to reverse the current short-term downward trend.
Why domestic prices fell much more sharply
While London robusta only dropped USD 75/ton for the March contract and USD 93/ton for January, domestic prices sank by VND 4,100/kg, equivalent to USD 156/ton.
The larger decline was primarily driven by market psychology:
Local buyers and exporters are reluctant to purchase as prices remain elevated and have shown a recent weakening trend.
At the beginning of the harvest, farmers typically sell quickly to cover picking and labor costs, which strengthens the buyers’ bargaining position and results in price pressure.
This pattern is typical during the early harvest: domestic prices often fluctuate more sharply than futures prices.
Short-term outlook for December 2
Despite supportive fundamentals from tightening ICE stocks and Vietnamese weather issues, technical selling remains dominant.
Robusta futures on December 2 are expected to:
Move within a narrow range or Extend their mild downward correction, unless bargain-hunting emerges.
Expected trading range for the March 2026 contract: USD 4,300 - 4,380/ton
NPK/ Vinagri News
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