VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange extended their decline on December 8, pressured by increasing global supply forecasts from Brazil and rising Vietnamese exports. Domestic prices in Vietnam fell sharply on December 9, widening the gap with London futures.
Summary:
> Robusta March 2026 futures closed at USD 4,092/tonne, down 2.06%.
> Vietnam domestic prices fell 2,000 - 2,100 VND/kg to 100,500 - 101,300 VND/kg.
> Domestic prices are USD 258/tonne lower than London futures.
> Brazil and Vietnam supply forecasts continue to pressure prices.
> ICE inventories remain tight, while La Niña delays Vietnam’s harvest.
> Price outlook for December 9: expected to slip slightly or trade sideways.
> Robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange continued to face strong downward pressure at the start of the week.
At the close of trading on Monday (December 8), the March 2026 robusta contract fell sharply to USD 4,092 per tonne, down 2.06% (-USD 86) from the previous session. Other maturities also posted steep losses, with the January 2026 contract dropping 1.79% (-USD 77) to USD 4,218 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese VND, the March 2026 futures contract is currently equivalent to 107,800 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,360 VND.
Vietnam domestic prices drop more than 2,000 VND/kg
Robusta prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands fell sharply on the morning of December 9, declining by 2,000 - 2,100 VND/kg to 100,500 - 101,300 VND/kg.
With an average of 101,000 VND/kg, domestic robusta prices are now 6,800 VND/kg lower than the March 2026 London futures contract - equivalent to a discount of around USD 258 per tonne.
Bearish sentiment driven by higher Brazil output and strong Vietnam exports
The downward trend intensified after Brazil’s crop agency Conab raised its 2025 coffee production forecast to 56.54 million bags, up 2.4% from its September estimate.
At the same time, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported November coffee exports of 88,000 tonnes, up 39% year-on-year, bringing total shipments for the first 11 months to 1.398 million tonnes, an increase of 14.8%.
Market sentiment remains affected by expectations of abundant future supply. On November 19, StoneX projected Brazil’s 2026 - 2027 harvest could reach 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a surge of 29% from the previous cycle.
Furthermore, the European Parliament’s November 26 decision to delay the implementation of the EUDR deforestation law by one year reinforced expectations that EU imports from high-risk regions will continue, supporting a larger global supply outlook.
ICE inventories shrink but La Niña delays Vietnam harvest
ICE-certified stocks continued to tighten. Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20 before recovering slightly to 426,523 bags last Friday.
Robusta inventories dropped to an 11.5-month low of 4,021 lots on Monday.
Vietnam’s harvest progress remains slow due to heavy rain and storms linked to La Niña. Meanwhile, inventories in major consuming markets have also declined sharply: the European Union holds only 7.8 million bags (the lowest since May), and Japan’s stockpiles remain below the historical average.
Price outlook for December 9 trading session
Robusta coffee futures for March 2026 on the London ICE exchange are expected to continue edging lower or move sideways on December 9.
Oversupply concerns - driven by strong production prospects in Brazil and other major producers - remain the dominant bearish factor. Unless unexpected supply-demand disruptions occur, prices are unlikely to rebound strongly.
Futures are projected to fluctuate between USD 4,050 and USD 4,100 per tonne.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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