VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell sharply again on December 16, tracking steep losses on the London robusta market. Despite persistent selling pressure driven by ample global supply prospects, robusta futures are expected to stabilize and move sideways in the near term, supported by technical buying after recent heavy declines.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices fell to 94,500 - 95,600 VND/kg on December 16.
> ICE London March 2026 robusta settled at USD 3,923/ton, down 1.90%.
> Domestic prices trade at a discount of about 8,000 VND/kg versus London futures.
> ICE robusta inventories dropped to an 11.5-month low.
> Robusta prices are expected to stabilize and trade sideways on December 16, with limited technical rebound potential.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam continued to decline sharply on December 16, falling by 1,600 - 2,200 VND/kg to a range of 94,500 - 95,600 VND/kg, reflecting ongoing weakness in global prices.
At the close of Monday’s session (December 15), ICE London robusta coffee futures for March 2026 dropped further to USD 3,923/ton, down 1.90% (-USD 76/ton) from the previous session. Other contracts also posted steep losses, with the January 2026 contract down 1.94% (-USD 80/ton) to USD 4,042/ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the March 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to about 103,300 VND/kg, based on the prevailing exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,332.5 VND. Compared with the domestic average price of around 95,300 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta prices are currently about 8,000 VND/kg lower than the London March 2026 futures, equivalent to a discount of roughly USD 304/ton.
On the supply side, ICE-monitored inventories remain a key focus. Arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20 before rebounding to a five-week high of 426,523 bags on December 5. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories dropped to an 11.5-month low of just 4,012 lots in mid-last week.
Following the sharp sell-off on December 15, robusta futures for March 2026 on the London exchange are expected to show greater stability in the December 16 session. While selling pressure persists amid expectations of abundant global supply, the recent steep decline has pushed prices into lower ranges, encouraging bottom-fishing and short-covering activity.
Market assessments suggest robusta prices are likely to trade within a narrow range, with nearby support seen around USD 3,880 - 3,900/ton. In a more bearish scenario, if selling sentiment intensifies or the US dollar strengthens, prices could retreat to test the USD 3,850/ton level.
Overall, the short-term trend for robusta coffee remains biased to the downside. However, during the December 16 session, the market is expected to shift into a consolidative, sideways pattern, with potential for a mild technical rebound following the recent heavy sell-off.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment