VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to edge lower on December 19, slipping by 200 - 500 VND/kg amid ongoing weakness in global robusta futures, as ample supply prospects and currency factors continue to weigh on the market.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell to 88,500 - 89,600 VND/kg on December 19.
> London robusta March 2026 futures closed at USD 3,677/ton, down 0.76%.
> Domestic prices are trading at a USD 281/ton discount to London futures.
> Ample supply from Brazil and Vietnam continues to pressure prices.
> Short-term outlook points to sideways-to-lower trading, with limited upside potential.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices declined slightly on December 19, falling by 200 - 500 VND/kg to a range of 88,500- 89,600 VND/kg, in line with continued weakness in international markets.
On Thursday, December 18, London robusta coffee futures extended their decline. The March 2026 contract closed at USD 3,677 per metric ton, down 0.76% (-USD 28/ton) from the previous session. Other contracts also moved lower, with the January 2026 contract losing 0.66% (-USD 25/ton) to settle at USD 3,774 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the March 2026 robusta futures price stands at approximately 96,700 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,314.96 VND. Compared with the domestic average price of 89,300 VND/kg, Vietnam’s internal market is trading at a discount of about 7,400 VND/kg, equivalent to roughly USD 281 per ton, versus the London futures price.
Looking ahead to the December 19 session, London robusta futures for March 2026 are expected to remain under downward pressure or trade sideways within a narrow range of USD 3,670 - 3,700 per ton. The outlook is largely shaped by expectations of abundant supply from major producing countries.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, recently raised its 2025 coffee production estimate to 56.54 million bags, up 2.4% from its previous forecast. In Vietnam, coffee exports surged 39% year-on-year in November, while cumulative exports for the first 11 months of the year rose 14.8% year-on-year to 1.398 million tons, indicating ample supply reaching the market. Although ICE robusta inventories are at an 11.5-month low, overall supply conditions continue to weigh on prices.
Supportive factors remain limited and largely short-term. Brazil’s green arabica coffee exports fell 27% year-on-year in November, providing some temporary support, alongside relatively low exchange inventories. However, the continued weakness of the Brazilian real encourages exports and remains a bearish factor for prices on the London market.
Overall, strong technical selling over the past two weeks has pushed prices to their lowest level in four months, with robusta futures hovering around USD 3,677 per ton on December 18. For the December 19 session, prices are expected to ease further or move sideways, with any rebounds likely to be limited and insufficient to reverse the prevailing downtrend. Market participants are advised to closely monitor rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions and Vietnam’s export pace, as these will remain key drivers of short-term price movements.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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