VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply on December 18, tracking steep losses in global robusta futures as favorable weather in Brazil, a weaker Brazilian real, and ample global supply continued to weigh on the market.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell to 88,700 - 90,100 VND/kg, down 3,500 - 3,900 VND/kg.
> ICE London robusta March 2026 dropped 3.31% to 3,705 USD/ton.
> Domestic prices are trading at a discount of about 296 USD/ton to London futures.
> Favorable Brazil weather, a weaker real, and ample supply weigh on prices.
> Low ICE inventories provide limited support.
> Robusta prices are forecast to fluctuate in the 3,650 - 3,750 USD/ton range.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam continued their steep decline on December 18, falling by 3,500 - 3,900 VND per kilogram to a range of 88,700 - 90,100 VND/kg, reflecting sustained weakness in international markets.
At the close of trading on Wednesday (December 17), ICE London robusta coffee futures for March 2026 plunged 3.31% (-127 USD) to 3,705 USD/ton. Other contracts also recorded heavy losses, with the January 2026 contract dropping 3.46% (-136 USD) to 3,799 USD/ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the March 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to approximately 97,500 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,332.5 VND. Compared with the domestic average price of around 89,700 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta prices are trading at a discount of about 7,800 VND/kg, equivalent to roughly 296 USD/ton, versus the London futures benchmark.
Looking ahead, robusta coffee prices for March 2026 on the London exchange are expected to remain under downward pressure in the December 18 session, after the sharp sell-off in the previous session. Market fundamentals point to either a mild continuation of losses or sideways movement at lower levels.
The main bearish factors include favorable weather conditions in Brazil, with abundant and persistent rainfall in key coffee-growing regions easing concerns over crop development. At the same time, a weaker Brazilian real against the US dollar has encouraged Brazilian producers to accelerate export sales, increasing global supply. The pressure is further reinforced by ample global supply prospects, as Brazil’s crop agency Conab raised its 2025 coffee production estimate to 56.54 million bags, while Vietnam’s robusta exports continue to rise strongly.
Nevertheless, prices are receiving some technical support from low ICE robusta inventories, which currently stand at just 4,012 lots, limiting readily available supplies. In addition, a 27% year-on-year drop in Brazil’s arabica exports in November has helped curb downside pressure in the arabica market, indirectly offering some support to robusta prices.
Overall, robusta coffee futures for March 2026 are expected to trade within the range of 3,650 - 3,750 USD/ton, with a bias toward mild weakness or low-level consolidation, unless unexpected factors such as adverse weather, policy changes, or sharp currency movements emerge. Physical market activity is likely to remain sluggish, particularly as Vietnam’s new robusta crop continues to enter the market, increasing deliverable supply for futures contracts.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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