VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices surged sharply on December 22, rising by VND 1,200 - 1,500 per kilogram amid tight near-term supply and supportive global prices. Meanwhile, the international coffee market is expected to open the new trading week cautiously, with robusta futures forecast to move sideways within a narrow range.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose sharply to VND 91,000 - 92,100 per kg on December 22.
> March 2026 robusta futures closed at USD 3,669 per tonne on ICE London.
> Domestic prices remain below international futures, indicating a continued discount.
> Robusta prices are expected to move sideways amid rising Vietnamese supply and low ICE inventories.
> The projected trading range for March 2026 robusta on December 22 is USD 3,630 - 3,710 per tonne.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to climb strongly on Monday, December 22, increasing by VND 1,200 - 1,500 per kilogram to trade in the range of VND 91,000 - 92,100 per kg, reflecting firm domestic demand and ongoing market volatility.
Later in the day, major global coffee exchanges including ICE New York (arabica) and ICE London (robusta) are scheduled to open the first trading session of the week at around 4:00 p.m. Vietnam time.
At the close of last week’s session, robusta futures for March 2026 delivery on ICE London settled at USD 3,669 per tonne, while arabica futures for March 2026 delivery on ICE New York closed at 340.65 US cents per pound, equivalent to approximately USD 7,510 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, March 2026 robusta futures are currently valued at around VND 96,500 per kg, based on an exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,315.
With domestic robusta prices averaging VND 91,600 per kg, Vietnam’s physical coffee prices remain VND 4,900 per kg lower than the March 2026 robusta futures price on the London exchange, equivalent to a discount of approximately USD 186 per tonne.
In the short term, robusta prices on the London market are expected to continue moving within a narrow range, as supply and demand fundamentals have yet to provide a clear catalyst for a new trend. Increasing physical supply from Vietnam - the world’s largest robusta producer - remains the dominant factor, particularly as the harvest enters its peak period and production for the 2025 - 2026 season is forecast to rise significantly.
Nevertheless, downside pressure on prices is being partly offset by ICE-monitored inventories, which remain at their lowest levels in nearly a year, helping to limit the risk of a sharp decline. After a prolonged corrective phase, the market has also seen technical buying and short-covering, contributing to greater price stability at lower levels.
Against this backdrop, March 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are forecast to trade between USD 3,630 and USD 3,710 per tonne during the December 22 session, with the base-case scenario pointing to sideways movement, mixed intraday fluctuations, and a close near current levels. Strong upside potential remains limited in the absence of fresh supportive news, while global coffee markets continue to be influenced by improving supply prospects.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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