VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices extended gains on December 23, rising by 800 - 1,500 VND/kg, supported by a sharp rebound in London robusta futures. Despite the recovery, domestic prices remain at a notable discount to international futures, while the broader market outlook points to short-term stability with a mild upward bias.
Summary:
> Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam rose to 92,000 - 92,900 VND/kg on December 23.
> London robusta March 2026 futures jumped 2.7% to USD 3,768 per ton.
> Domestic prices remain about 6,500 VND/kg (USD 246/ton) below London futures.
> Short-term outlook: stable to slightly higher, driven by technical recovery and weather concerns.
> Medium-term supply prospects continue to limit upside momentum.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to increase on December 23, climbing by 800 - 1,500 VND/kg from the previous day to a range of 92,000 - 92,900 VND/kg. The upward movement followed a strong rebound in global coffee markets, particularly robusta futures on the London exchange.
At the close of Monday’s session (December 22), London robusta futures for March 2026 delivery surged 2.70%, or USD 99 per ton, to USD 3,768 per ton. Other nearby contracts also posted solid gains, with the January 2026 contract rising 2.33% (+USD 88) to USD 3,866 per ton.
Based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,331.03 VND, the March 2026 robusta futures price is equivalent to approximately 99,200 VND/kg. Compared with the domestic average price of around 92,700 VND/kg, Vietnam’s internal market is trading at a discount of about 6,500 VND/kg, or roughly USD 246 per ton, relative to the London futures benchmark.
The rebound in robusta prices has been largely driven by technical factors and improved market sentiment following the previous correction. The March 2026 contract has managed to hold above the key support level near USD 3,700 per ton, suggesting a short-term technical recovery rather than the start of a sustained bullish trend.
In the near term, prices continue to receive support from weather concerns in Brazil, where rainfall in major coffee-growing regions has been below historical averages, raising short-term supply risks. In addition, ICE-monitored robusta inventories, while recovering slightly in recent sessions, remain relatively low compared with long-term averages, helping to limit selling pressure.
Nevertheless, medium-term supply prospects continue to cap upside potential. Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is currently in the peak harvest period, with exports proceeding smoothly. At the same time, expectations of ample global supply, particularly if weather conditions in Brazil improve in the coming months, are keeping the market cautious.
Against this backdrop, London robusta futures for March 2026 are expected to trade in a relatively narrow range during the December 23 session, with a slightly positive bias. Prices are forecast to fluctuate mainly between USD 3,730 and USD 3,820 per ton. If buying interest remains firm and prices stay above USD 3,750 per ton, the market could test resistance around USD 3,800 - 3,830 per ton. Conversely, profit-taking could trigger a pullback toward USD 3,700 - 3,720 per ton, though a sharp decline appears unlikely in the absence of new negative fundamentals.
Overall, the short-term outlook for robusta coffee prices remains one of technical recovery, reflecting a balance between temporary supportive factors and ongoing medium-term supply pressures. Clearer signals from weather developments and export flows will be needed for the market to establish a more definitive trend in the sessions ahead.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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