VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to rise on December 24, tracking gains in London robusta futures. Despite thin liquidity ahead of the Christmas holiday, robusta prices are expected to hold firm, supported by fund positioning and hedging demand from exporters.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose to 94,500 - 95,400 VND/kg on December 24
> London robusta March 2026 closed at 3,824 USD/tonne, up 1.49%
> Domestic prices remain 212 USD/tonne below London March futures
> Robusta expected to trade sideways to slightly higher amid thin holiday liquidity
> ICE London and ICE New York to operate on shortened holiday schedules
Vietnamese domestic coffee prices rose by an additional 2,100 - 2,500 VND/kg on the morning of December 24, pushing prices to a range of 94,500 - 95,400 VND/kg, reflecting continued strength in global robusta markets.
At the close of Tuesday’s trading session (December 23), London ICE robusta futures for March 2026 advanced 1.49% (+56 USD) to 3,824 USD/tonne. Other contracts posted even stronger gains, with the January 2026 contract climbing 2.69% (+104 USD) to 3,970 USD/tonne, underscoring persistent bullish sentiment in the near-term structure.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the March 2026 robusta contract is currently valued at approximately 100,600 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,307 VND. Compared with the domestic average price of around 95,000 VND/kg, Vietnam’s physical robusta is trading at a discount of about 5,600 VND/kg, equivalent to roughly 212 USD/tonne below London futures.
For the December 24 session, London robusta March 2026 is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, fluctuating within a 3,820 - 3,840 USD/tonne range. Market liquidity is likely to remain subdued due to the approaching Christmas holiday, limiting the probability of sharp price swings. Buying interest is expected to be driven mainly by investment funds and exporters maintaining hedging positions. Weather developments in Indonesia or changes in Vietnam’s export flows could trigger short-term reactions, though major breakouts appear unlikely.
Regarding holiday schedules, ICE London is set to close early at 20:00 Vietnam time on December 24 and will remain closed during the Christmas holidays before reopening early next week. Meanwhile, ICE New York will close at 01:00 on December 25 (Vietnam time) and reopen later than usual at 19:30 on Friday, resulting in reduced global market activity during the holiday period.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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