VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell sharply on December 15, tracking weakness in global futures markets. Robusta prices are expected to remain under pressure amid ample global supply and peak harvest activity in Vietnam, despite relatively low ICE inventories.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell to 96,700 - 97,600 dong/kg on December 15.
> Robusta futures closed at USD 3,999/tonne; arabica at 369.30 cents/lb.
> Vietnamese robusta is trading at a steep discount to London futures.
> Global supply expectations and peak harvest pressure continue to weigh on prices.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to decline sharply on Monday, December 15, falling by 1,900 - 2,200 dong per kilogram to a range of 96,700 - 97,600 dong/kg, reflecting sustained weakness in international coffee markets.
Major global coffee exchanges, including ICE New York for arabica and ICE London for robusta, are set to open the first trading session of the week at around 4:00 p.m. Vietnam time.
At the close of last week’s session, ICE London robusta futures for March 2026 settled at USD 3,999 per tonne, while ICE New York arabica futures for March 2026 ended at 369.30 US cents per pound, equivalent to approximately USD 8,140 per tonne.
Based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,310 VND, the March 2026 robusta futures price translates to about 105,200 VND/kg. With domestic prices averaging around 97,200 dong/kg, Vietnamese robusta is trading at a discount of roughly 8,000 dong/kg, or about USD 304 per tonne, compared with London futures.
ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, before rebounding to a one-month high of 426,523 bags by the end of last week. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories declined to an 11.5-month low of 4,012 lots last Wednesday.
Looking ahead, March 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are expected to remain under pressure in the December 15 session, as market sentiment continues to be weighed down by expectations of abundant global supply. Rising production prospects in Vietnam and Brazil - the world’s largest robusta and arabica producers - remain the dominant short-term drivers.
Although low ICE inventories provide some underlying support, this has so far been insufficient to reverse the downward trend, particularly as Vietnam enters the peak harvest period. In addition, the European Union’s decision to delay implementation of its anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR) by one year is helping to maintain coffee import flows into the bloc, easing short-term supply concerns.
In the near term, robusta prices are expected to trade in a low range, with a bias toward weak consolidation or mild declines, as the market awaits clearer signals from weather conditions in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and export developments from major producing countries. Any price rebounds are likely to be technical in nature and difficult to sustain, given that the global supply-demand balance continues to favor surplus.
March 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are projected to fluctuate around USD 3,950 - 4,000 per tonne during the December 15 trading session.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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