VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply on December 17, dropping by VND 2,000/kg, as global robusta futures continued to slide on the London market amid expectations of ample supply. The domestic market remains significantly discounted to international futures.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell by VND 2,000/kg to VND 92,500 - 93,600/kg on December 17.
> London robusta futures (March 2026) closed at USD 3,832/ton, down 2.32%.
> Domestic prices are trading at a discount of about VND 7,600/kg versus London futures.
> Robusta prices on December 17 are expected to range between USD 3,750 - 3,820/ton.
> Ample supply prospects from Brazil and Vietnam continue to weigh on prices, despite low inventories providing some support.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam continued to decline sharply on December 17, falling by VND 2,000 per kg to a range of VND 92,500 - 93,600 per kg, following another steep drop in global robusta prices.
At the close of trading on Tuesday (December 16), London ICE robusta futures for March 2026 delivery fell 2.32% (-USD 91) from the previous session to USD 3,832 per ton. Other contracts also recorded strong losses, with the January 2026 contract down 2.65% (-USD 107) to USD 3,935 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the March 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to approximately VND 100,900 per kg, based on an exchange rate of VND 26,353 per USD.
With domestic prices averaging around VND 93,300 per kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is trading at a discount of roughly VND 7,600 per kg compared with the March 2026 London futures price, equivalent to about USD 288 per ton.
Looking ahead to the December 17 trading session, robusta futures for March 2026 on the London market are forecast to continue edging lower or move sideways, with an expected trading range of USD 3,750 - 3,820 per ton. Physical buying interest in Brazil is expected to help limit deeper losses.
Downward pressure is mainly driven by expectations of ample global supply. Heavy rainfall in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions has improved crop outlooks, while Vietnam’s robusta exports rose sharply in November, adding to international supply.
On the supportive side, ICE-monitored robusta inventories remain at their lowest level in 11.5 months, and physical demand in Brazil is still reported to be strong. However, analysts caution that abundant supply and incoming new production from major producing countries are likely to keep prices under pressure in the near term.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment