VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices surged sharply on December 27, rising by VND 1,300 - 2,000 per kg to VND 97,000 - 98,300 per kg, supported by strong futures in New York, tight global inventories, and expectations of sustained demand despite peak harvest season.
Summary:
> Domestic coffee prices rose sharply to VND 97,000 - 98,300 per kg on December 27.
> Strong arabica futures in New York and low global inventories supported prices.
> Labor shortages slowed harvesting but improved bean quality.
> Vietnam remains a key global supplier until Brazil’s next harvest in mid-2026.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices recorded a strong increase on December 27, climbing by VND 1,300 - 2,000 per kg to a range of VND 97,000 - 98,300 per kg across the Central Highlands. The sharp rise came as global market signals remained supportive, even as domestic harvesting entered its peak phase.
On Friday (December 26), ICE London (robusta) remained closed for the Boxing Day holiday, while ICE New York (arabica) opened later than usual. At the close of trading on Wednesday (December 24), March 2026 robusta futures on ICE London stood at USD 3,858 per ton. Meanwhile, arabica futures for March 2026 on ICE New York ended the December 26 session with a strong rally, reaching 350.25 US cents per pound, equivalent to about USD 7,721 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency at the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,290.95, March 2026 robusta futures are equivalent to around VND 101,400 per kg. This places domestic robusta prices, averaging about VND 98,100 per kg, roughly VND 3,300 per kg (or about USD 125 per ton) below the London futures price.
As the year draws to a close, coffee-growing regions across Vietnam are accelerating harvesting activities, with most areas expected to complete the crop before the Lunar New Year. However, labor shortages have become a major challenge. Nguyen Thi Chien, a coffee farmer in the former Kon Tum province (now part of Quang Ngai), said her family struggled to find workers for their 5 hectares of robusta. Daily labor costs rose to VND 300,000 this year from VND 250,000 last year. While hiring day labor slowed harvesting and increased costs, it helped protect the gardens and ensure productivity for the next season.
Chien noted that her output declined slightly to about 13 tons this year, with around 7 tons from the previous crop still in storage. “Coffee prices have been extremely unpredictable,” she said, explaining that her family sold half of last season’s output at VND 110,000 - 130,000 per kg before prices fell sharply, prompting them to hold the rest.
In Lam Dong province, most coffee is harvested under contract arrangements, with costs ranging from VND 1,500 - 2,000 per kg, compared with VND 1,000 - 1,200 per kg last season. Le Quang, a local farmer, said smallholders often sell fresh coffee immediately after harvest regardless of price due to limited drying facilities and urgent cash needs to cover living expenses and debts.
Mid-sized farmers typically sell about 20% of their output early in the season and store the rest at agents while waiting for better prices. Quang said his family was fortunate to sell part of its crop near the peak price of VND 130,000 per kg last season, while also reserving one-third of production for roasting and retail sales.
Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, confirmed that labor shortages have slowed harvesting but improved quality, as beans are picked at full ripeness. He expects production this season to be on par with or about 5% higher than last year. According to Minh, price declines during peak harvest are normal, noting that 2024 was an exceptional year when prices surged even during the main harvest period.
Minh advised farmers to sell in stages based on financial needs rather than speculate excessively, and to maintain stable relationships with traditional buyers. Phan Minh Thong, CEO of Phuc Sinh Corp, said Vietnam has enjoyed a good harvest this year while prices remain favorable, albeit below record highs. With global coffee inventories at low levels, he expects prices to rebound, benefiting both farmers and businesses.
According to the USDA’s December report, global coffee production in the 2025 - 2026 season is projected to reach a record 10.728 million tons, up 2% year-on-year, driven by recovery in Vietnam and record output in Indonesia and Ethiopia, offsetting losses in Brazil and Colombia. Global consumption is also forecast at a record 10.434 million tons, up 1.3%, while ending stocks are expected to fall to a five-year low of just 1.2 million tons. This balance is expected to keep prices elevated but less volatile.
Speaking to Nguoi Lao Dong newspaper, Mr Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), said Vietnam is currently the dominant supplier to the global market. The situation may only change around May 2026, when Brazil enters its harvest season. “Even at a low of VND 80,000 per kg, robusta prices this season still allow farmers to earn more than double their production costs,” Mr Nam said.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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