VINAGRI News - Vietnamese robusta coffee prices rose 700 - 1,000 VND/kg on December 30, reaching 95,700 - 97,600 VND/kg. London robusta futures for March 2026 closed at 3,884 USD/ton on December 29, supported by global supply concerns, while abundant production in Vietnam and Brazil continues to exert moderate downward pressure.
Summary:
> Domestic robusta coffee prices in Vietnam rose 700 - 1,000 VND/kg on December 30.
> March 2026 London robusta futures closed at 3,884 USD/ton on December 29.
> Price support comes from Brazil’s low rainfall and Indonesian flooding reducing exports.
> Downward pressure from high production in Vietnam and Brazil continues.
> Market expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the short term.
Vietnamese robusta coffee prices rebounded on the morning of December 30, rising 700 - 1,000 VND/kg to a range of 95,700 - 97,600 VND/kg in the Central Highlands. With an average price of 97,400 VND/kg, domestic robusta remains approximately 4,600 VND/kg lower than March 2026 London futures, equivalent to roughly 175 USD/ton, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,265 VND.
On the London ICE Exchange, robusta coffee futures for March 2026 closed at 3,884 USD/ton on December 29, up 0.67% (+26 USD/ton) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also rose, with January 2026 up 0.17% (+7 USD/ton) to 4,019 USD/ton.
Market analysts predict that March 2026 robusta futures are likely to remain stable or increase slightly during the December 30 session. Price support comes mainly from supply concerns. Below-average rainfall in Brazil has raised worries about the arabica crop, indirectly supporting robusta prices. Additionally, widespread flooding in Indonesia is expected to reduce robusta exports by up to 15% in the 2025 - 2026 season, tightening the global market. Robust monitored inventories on ICE also remain low, adding further support.
However, the market faces downward pressure from abundant supplies. Vietnam’s robusta production for 2025 - 2026 is projected to increase 6.2% year-on-year, reaching a four-year high. In Brazil, while some regions face risks due to low rainfall, overall robusta production remains high, keeping global supply ample. Vietnamese farmers are also holding back stocks, waiting for better prices, which temporarily limits supply but maintains potential selling pressure in the medium term.
Experts forecast that March 2026 robusta futures may move slightly higher by 10 - 20 USD/ton on December 30, provided no unexpected developments in weather or exports occur.
In summary, the robusta market is currently balanced between supply-related support and pressure from ample production, suggesting possible price fluctuations, but the overall short-term trend is expected to remain stable or edge slightly upward.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment