Coffee prices in Vietnam rebound on January 7, robust futures supported by tight ICE stocks and strong Brazilian real

VINAGRI News - Vietnamese robusta coffee prices climbed sharply on January 7, following a strong rally in global futures. Robust futures on the London ICE exchange reached above $4,000/ton, underpinned by tight ICE inventories and a firmer Brazilian real, while abundant Vietnamese exports and technical profit-taking may temper gains in the short term.

Summary:

> Vietnamese robusta coffee rebounds to 98,500 - 99,300 VND/kg on January 7.

> London ICE robusta March 2026 futures surge to $4,007/ton, supported by low ICE stocks and a strong Brazilian real.

> Strong Vietnamese exports and technical profit-taking may limit short-term upside.

> Technical range for March 2026 futures: $3,980 - $4,080/ton; breakout above $4,100 could target $4,150 - $4,200/ton.

Vietnamese coffee prices rose strongly on January 7, with robusta averaging 98,500 - 99,300 VND/kg, up around 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous day.

On the London ICE exchange, robusta futures for March 2026 (RMH26) surged to $4,007/ton, up 2.27% (+$89/ton) from the prior session. Other nearby contracts also gained: January 2026 rose 2.31% to $4,157/ton. Converted to Vietnamese dong at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,285 VND, March 2026 robusta futures are trading around 105,300 VND/kg, approximately 6,200 VND/kg higher than domestic prices, or about $235/ton.

Looking ahead to January 7, March 2026 robusta futures are expected to maintain an upward bias but trade cautiously. Tight inventories monitored by ICE, despite slight recent recovery, continue to support market sentiment around limited supply. Meanwhile, the strength of the Brazilian real against the USD discourages sales from Latin American producers, adding further support.

On the other hand, ample Vietnamese robusta supply, with 2025 exports up 17.5% to 1.58 million tons, may limit near-term upside. After the recent rally above $4,000/ton, technical profit-taking could create a period of consolidation or short-term price fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, March 2026 robusta futures are likely to trade between $3,980 and $4,080/ton during the session. A breakout above $4,100/ton could open gains toward $4,150 - $4,200/ton, while stronger selling pressure could push prices back toward $3,950 - $3,970/ton.

NPK/ Vinagri News