VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose modestly on January 27, tracking gains in global robusta futures, as a weaker U.S. dollar and reduced Brazilian exports continued to support the market, despite rising ICE inventories and ample global supply prospects.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices up 300 - 700 VND/kg to 101,100 - 101,900 VND/kg on Jan 27
> ICE London May 2026 robusta settled at USD 4,113/ton, up 1.53%
> Domestic prices trade at a USD 218/ton discount to London futures
> Weak U.S. dollar and falling Brazilian exports support prices
> Rising ICE inventories and ample global supply limit upside
> May 2026 robusta forecast (Jan 27): USD 4,115 - 4,145/ton, slightly bullish bias
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices increased slightly on January 27, up 300 - 700 VND/kg, reaching a range of 101,100 - 101,900 VND/kg across the Central Highlands.
In the previous session on Monday (January 26), ICE London robusta coffee futures continued their upward momentum. The March 2026 contract settled at USD 4,197 per metric ton, up 1.33% (+USD 55) from the prior session. Other contracts also posted solid gains, with the May 2026 contract rising 1.53% (+USD 62) to USD 4,113 per ton, while the July 2026 contract increased 1.44% (+USD 57) to USD 4,024 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta futures price stands at approximately 107,400 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,133 VND.
At an average domestic price of 101,700 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is currently trading at a discount of about 5,700 VND/kg compared with the May 2026 London futures contract, equivalent to roughly USD 218 per metric ton.
Robusta prices in the January 26 session were supported by the continued decline of the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which fell to a four-month low. A weaker dollar has remained a key bullish factor for commodities, including coffee, helping robusta futures rebound after a period of sideways trading.
Additional support came from sharply lower Brazilian coffee exports in December 2025, with robusta shipments plunging 61% year-on-year, alongside below-average rainfall in Brazil’s main arabica-growing regions, which reinforced short-term supply concerns. Strong export performance from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, with 2025 exports up 17.5% year-on-year, also helped underpin prices in the near term.
However, bearish factors persist. ICE-monitored robusta inventories have rebounded to 4,609 lots, a 1.75-month high, adding supply-side pressure. Moreover, expectations of ample global supply continue to cap upside potential, after Brazil raised its 2025 coffee production forecast to 56.54 million bags, while Vietnam’s rising exports further contribute to supply availability.
In Brazil’s physical market, growers remain reluctant sellers at current price levels, even as buying interest remains across all coffee grades. This dynamic has helped balance supply and demand, allowing robusta prices to hold firm or edge slightly higher.
Based on current fundamentals, ICE London robusta coffee futures for May 2026 on January 27 are forecast to trade within a range of USD 4,115 - 4,145 per metric ton, with a mild upward bias should the U.S. dollar remain weak and physical demand stay resilient.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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