VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to decline on January 9, tracking weakness in ICE London robusta futures as a stronger US dollar and ample Vietnamese supply weighed on the market, despite ongoing fundamental support from global production risks.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell to VND 97,500 - 98,100 per kg on January 9.
> ICE London March 2026 robusta closed at USD 3,928 per ton, down 0.28%.
> Vietnamese robusta is trading at a discount of about USD 197 per ton to London futures.
> A stronger US dollar and rising Vietnamese exports continue to pressure prices.
> Fundamental supply risks in Brazil and Colombia are expected to limit deeper losses.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices extended their downward trend on January 9, falling by an additional VND 200 per kg to a range of VND 97,500 - 98,100 per kg. The decline followed continued weakness in global robusta futures, as market sentiment remained cautious amid currency and supply pressures.
At the close of trading on Thursday (January 8), ICE London robusta futures for March 2026 settled at USD 3,928 per ton, down 0.28% (USD 11) from the previous session. Other deferred contracts also edged lower, while the January 2026 contract bucked the trend, rising 0.69% (USD 28) to USD 4,107 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese dong at the prevailing exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,267.50, the March 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to approximately VND 103,100 per kg. Compared with the current domestic average price of around VND 97,900 per kg, Vietnamese robusta is trading at a discount of roughly VND 5,200 per kg, or about USD 197 per ton, to the London futures benchmark.
Looking ahead to the January 9 trading session, robusta futures on ICE London are expected to continue moving within a narrow range, with a mild downside bias. The key pressure comes from the US dollar index, which has risen to a four-week high, prompting profit-taking and liquidation of long positions across commodity markets. At the same time, strong Vietnamese supply remains a major drag on prices, with the country’s coffee exports in 2025 rising 17.5% year on year to 1.58 million tons.
ICE-monitored robusta inventories have climbed to a five-week high of 4,278 lots, providing some support but not enough to trigger a strong rebound. Broader fundamentals remain constructive, however, as Brazil’s coffee output outlook remains uncertain due to uneven rainfall distribution, while Colombia’s coffee production fell 2.3% in 2025, keeping supply concerns in focus.
Under these conditions, analysts expect March 2026 robusta futures to trade around USD 3,920 - 3,950 per ton. Upside potential appears limited in the near term, with market activity dominated by technical adjustments and profit-taking, particularly if the US dollar maintains its strength and Vietnamese exports remain steady.
According to Eduardo Carvalhaes, Director of the Carvalhaes Office, physical coffee trading in Brazil remains subdued. Most farmers have yet to return to the market and show little interest in selling at current price levels, while buying demand across all coffee grades remains strong. This dynamic is expected to help prevent robusta prices from falling sharply, even as they face pressure from currency movements and global supply conditions.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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