VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam remained unchanged on January 26, holding firm at VND 100,800 - 101,200 per kilogram, as global markets awaited the opening of the new trading week. On the futures market, robusta prices are expected to move sideways after last week’s sharp rally, amid a balance between a weaker US dollar and mounting supply-side pressures.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices (Jan 26): Stable at VND 100,800 - 101,200/kg
> Robusta May 2026 (ICE London): USD 4,051/tonne (last close)
> Arabica March 2026 (ICE New York): 350.90 US cents/lb
> Domestic vs futures discount: ~VND 5,100/kg (~USD 194/tonne)
> Short-term outlook: Sideways movement within USD 4,000 - 4,080/tonne
> Key drivers: Weak USD (supportive), rising ICE inventories and ample supply (bearish)
On Monday, January 26, Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices showed no change, continuing to trade within the range of VND 100,800 - 101,200/kg across the Central Highlands.
Major global coffee exchanges, including ICE New York (arabica) and ICE London (robusta), are scheduled to open the first trading session of the week at around 4:00 p.m. Vietnam time.
At the close of last week’s session, robusta futures for May 2026 on ICE London settled at USD 4,051 per tonne, while arabica futures for March 2026 on ICE New York closed at 350.90 US cents per pound, equivalent to approximately USD 7,735 per tonne.
Based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,205.04, the May 2026 robusta futures price converts to around VND 106,100/kg. With domestic prices averaging VND 101,000/kg, Vietnamese robusta is trading at a discount of roughly VND 5,100/kg, or about USD 194 per tonne, compared with the London futures price.
Following the strong rally on January 23, robusta prices on ICE London have approached a 1.5-month high, prompting a more cautious tone among investors at the start of the week. Market analysts note that short-covering, the main driver of the recent price surge, appears to be losing momentum, while short-term profit-taking may emerge.
For the May 2026 robusta contract, prices are forecast to trade mainly within the USD 4,000 - 4,080 per tonne range during the January 26 session. This scenario is considered the most likely, reflecting a relative balance between supportive and bearish factors.
On the supportive side, the US dollar remains weak, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to international investors. In addition, concerns over weather conditions in Brazil and a sharp decline in Brazilian coffee exports in December continue to underpin market sentiment.
Conversely, rising ICE-monitored coffee inventories are exerting downward pressure on prices. Robusta inventories have rebounded to their highest level in nearly two months, while arabica stocks have also shown a clear recovery. Furthermore, the outlook for ample global supply remains a bearish factor, especially after Brazil raised its 2025 production forecast and Vietnam recorded a strong increase in coffee exports in 2025.
In a bullish scenario, should the US dollar weaken further and technical selling remain limited, May 2026 robusta futures could test the USD 4,100 - 4,150 per tonne range. On the downside, stronger profit-taking or a technical rebound in the dollar could pull prices back toward USD 3,950 - 3,980 per tonne.
Overall, in the short term, the robusta market is expected to continue trading within a narrow range, with a sideways trend dominating as traders await clearer signals from Brazilian weather conditions, export flows from major producing countries, and movements in global currency markets.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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