VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose slightly on January 15, increasing by 100 - 200 VND/kg to 97,900 - 98,600 VND/kg. Meanwhile, London robusta futures posted marginal gains in the previous session but are expected to trade sideways to slightly lower amid currency and supply pressures.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose 100 - 200 VND/kg to 97,900 - 98,600 VND/kg on January 15.
> March 2026 London robusta futures closed at USD 3,955/tonne on January 14.
> Domestic prices are about 5,400 VND/kg (USD 205/tonne) below London futures.
> Weak Brazilian real and ample global supply continue to pressure prices.
> Low ICE robusta inventories help limit downside risks in the near term.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee market recorded a modest uptick on January 15, with prices rising by 100 - 200 VND/kg to a range of 97,900 - 98,600 VND/kg. The increase came despite ongoing pressure from global market fundamentals.
At the close of Wednesday’s trading session (January 14), London robusta coffee futures for March 2026 edged up by 0.05% (+USD 2) to USD 3,955/tonne. The January 2026 contract gained 0.41% (+USD 17) to USD 4,155/tonne, while other contracts softened slightly, with the May 2026 contract down 0.08% (-USD 3) at USD 3,879/tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the March 2026 robusta contract is currently valued at approximately 103,900 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,270.50 VND. Compared with the domestic average price of around 98,500 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is trading at a discount of about 5,400 VND/kg, equivalent to roughly USD 205/tonne below the London futures price.
Looking ahead to the January 15 session, robusta futures for March 2026 on the London exchange are expected to remain under pressure and fluctuate within a narrow range, with a sideways to slightly lower bias. Bearish factors continue to dominate, notably the weakness of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, which encourages Brazilian farmers and exporters to accelerate coffee sales, weighing on global prices.
In addition, Vietnam’s strong coffee export performance and expectations of ample global supply in the 2025 season continue to cap any significant rebound in robusta prices, particularly after Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab raised its production outlook.
On the supportive side, ICE-monitored robusta inventories remain relatively low compared with long-term averages, helping to limit downside risks and suggesting that any price correction may be mild rather than a sharp decline.
Overall, the March 2026 robusta contract is forecast to trade in the USD 3,930 - 3,980/tonne range. If selling pressure intensifies, prices could test the USD 3,900/tonne support level. Conversely, should technical buying emerge, prices may edge higher but are unlikely to sustain a move above the USD 4,000/tonne threshold.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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