VINAGRI News - Vietnamese robusta coffee prices held steady on January 13, hovering between VND 97,000 - 97,900/kg, while London robusta futures for March 2026 showed modest gains. Factors supporting the market include weak USD and low ICE-monitored inventories, whereas rising Vietnamese exports and rainfall forecasts in Brazil are capping upside potential.
Summary:
> Vietnamese robusta coffee prices stable at VND 97,000 - 97,900/kg.
> London ICE March 2026 robusta futures up 0.36% to USD 3,917/ton (≈VND 102,900/kg).
> Futures expected to trade USD 3,890 - 3,970/ton, support at USD 3,880 - 3,900/ton, resistance at USD 3,950 - 4,000/ton.
> Price support: weak USD, low ICE robusta inventories.
> Price pressure: rising Vietnamese exports, rainfall easing drought concerns in Brazil.
On January 13, domestic robusta coffee prices in Vietnam remained largely unchanged, trading in the range of VND 97,000 - 97,900/kg. In Lâm Đồng province, prices dipped slightly by 200 VND/kg. At an average of VND 97,600/kg, Vietnamese robusta currently trades about VND 5,300/kg lower than the March 2026 London futures contract, equivalent to roughly USD 201 per ton.
Internationally, robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange closed higher on January 12. The March 2026 contract rose 0.36% (+USD 14/ton) to USD 3,917/ton, while other nearby contracts also gained slightly: January 2026 up 0.42% (+USD 17/ton) at USD 4,092/ton, and May 2026 up 0.21% (+USD 8/ton) to USD 3,845/ton. Converted to Vietnamese Dong at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = VND 26,273.06, the March 2026 contract is priced at VND 102,900/kg.
For the January 13 session, March 2026 robusta futures are expected to trade in a range of USD 3,890 - 3,970/ton, maintaining a sideways to slightly bullish trend. Near-term support is identified at USD 3,880 - 3,900/ton, with resistance at USD 3,950 - 4,000/ton. A continued USD weakness could push prices to test USD 4,000/ton, though strong breakouts remain unlikely. Conversely, rising export supply from Vietnam may pressure prices toward USD 3,850/ton if technical selling occurs.
Supporting factors for prices include a weak US dollar, which has triggered short-covering in the robusta futures market, and relatively low ICE-monitored robusta inventories, which have rebounded slightly from one-year lows but continue to provide underlying market support.
Factors limiting gains include robust Vietnamese coffee exports, which reached 1.58 million tons in 2025, up 17.5% year-on-year, adding pressure on supply. Additionally, rainfall forecasts in Brazil - the world’s largest arabica producer - have eased drought concerns, reducing upward momentum for global coffee prices.
Market analysts advise that investors monitor USD movements, global inventories, and Brazil’s weather reports closely, as these remain key drivers for robusta coffee prices in the coming sessions.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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