VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam edged down by VND 300/kg on February 27 to VND 96,100 - 97,100/kg, despite a sharp 1.73% decline in London robusta futures. The market is facing short-term downward pressure amid expectations of record global supply and recovering ICE inventories.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices fell slightly by VND 300/kg to VND 96,100 - 97,100/kg.
> May 2026 London robusta futures dropped 1.73% to USD 3,639/ton.
> Domestic prices remain about VND 2,100/kg (USD 80.61/ton) above London futures.
> Market pressured by expectations of record global output and rising ICE inventories.
> Technical outlook suggests potential testing of USD 3,580 - 3,600 support.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell slightly by VND 300/kg in some areas on the morning of February 27, bringing prices in the Central Highlands to VND 96,100 - 97,100 per kilogram.
Meanwhile, robusta futures on the London exchange closed sharply lower on Thursday (February 26). The May 2026 contract on the ICE London exchange declined 1.73% (down USD 64) to USD 3,639 per ton compared to the previous session.
Other nearby contracts also posted significant losses:
𑇐 March 2026 fell 1.86% (down USD 70) to USD 3,689 per ton.
𑇐 July 2026 declined 1.68% (down USD 61) to USD 3,569 per ton.
Converted at the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,050.01, the May 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to approximately VND 94,800/kg.
With the domestic average price at VND 96,900/kg, Vietnamese robusta is currently trading about VND 2,100/kg higher than the May 2026 London futures contract, equivalent to a premium of roughly USD 80.61 per ton.
After dropping 1.73% to USD 3,639 per ton on February 26, the May 2026 robusta contract is facing short-term corrective pressure. The market is being weighed down by forecasts that global coffee production for the 2026 - 2027 season could reach a record 180 million bags, alongside favorable crop prospects in Brazil and improved export flows from Vietnam.
In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have been recovering, easing supply concerns that had supported prices throughout 2024 - 2025.
From a technical perspective, the breach of the USD 3,700 per ton level has shifted short-term momentum to the downside. In the February 27 session, prices may test the support zone of USD 3,580 - 3,600 per ton. If selling pressure intensifies, the market could retreat toward USD 3,550 per ton. Conversely, any technical rebound is likely to be capped within the USD 3,680 - 3,700 per ton range.
Overall, the robusta market is undergoing a corrective phase as sentiment shifts from supply tightness concerns to expectations of improved availability in the upcoming season.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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