VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rebounded sharply on February 25, rising by VND 2,500 - 2,600 per kg to VND 95,400 - 96,100 per kg, following strong gains in London robusta futures. The May 2026 robusta contract on ICE London climbed 2.25% to $3,640 per metric ton, supported by a stronger Brazilian real that triggered short-covering activity. Despite the recovery, global supply prospects remain ample, potentially capping further upside.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices increased by VND 2,500 - 2,600/kg to VND 95,400 - 96,100/kg.
> London May 2026 robusta futures rose 2.25% to $3,640/ton.
> March 2026 contract gained 3.42% to $3,663/ton; July 2026 rose 2.32% to $3,570/ton.
> Converted price of May 2026 futures equals approximately VND 95,200/kg (USD/VND 26,155).
> Domestic prices are trading at a premium of about VND 800/kg (~$30.50/ton) over London futures.
> Stronger Brazilian real reduced exporter selling pressure and triggered short-covering.
> Brazil’s 2026 crop projected at record levels, increasing global supply expectations.
> Vietnam exports and 2025 - 2026 output expected to rise, adding supply pressure.
> ICE-monitored robusta inventories have recovered to a near three-month high.
> Short-term outlook favors technical recovery, but upside may be limited by abundant supply.
At the close of trading on Tuesday (February 24), London robusta coffee futures for May 2026 delivery surged 2.25% (+$80) to $3,640 per metric ton. Nearby contracts also posted strong gains, with March 2026 rising 3.42% (+$121) to $3,663 per ton and July 2026 advancing 2.32% (+$81) to $3,570 per ton.
Converted at the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,155, the May 2026 robusta futures price is equivalent to approximately VND 95,200 per kg.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of February 25 increased sharply by VND 2,500 - 2,600 per kg, reaching VND 95,400 - 96,100 per kg. With an average price of VND 96,000 per kg, domestic robusta is currently trading at a premium of about VND 800 per kg compared to the London May 2026 contract, equivalent to roughly $30.50 per metric ton.
London robusta futures are expected to continue fluctuating in a recovery trend during the February 25 session, following the previous session’s strong rebound. The rally was largely driven by the appreciation of the Brazilian real, which reduced selling pressure from Brazilian exporters and triggered short-covering in the futures market.
After falling to a 6.5-month low earlier this week, robusta prices attracted notable technical buying interest, providing momentum for the current rebound.
However, upside potential may be limited by improving global supply conditions. Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is projected to reach a record high, while Vietnam’s coffee exports have risen sharply and production for the 2025 - 2026 season is expected to reach the highest level in four years. Additionally, ICE-monitored robusta inventories have recovered to their highest level in nearly three months as of late January, adding further pressure to the market.
Given these factors, the May 2026 robusta contract could test the $3,660 - $3,720 per ton range if technical buying persists and the Brazilian real remains firm. Conversely, profit-taking activity or a stronger U.S. dollar could push prices back toward the $3,540 - $3,600 per ton range.
Overall, while short-term momentum favors a technical recovery following the recent sell-off, downside risks remain due to abundant global supply expectations.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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