VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell sharply on March 12, dropping 3,000 - 3,700 VND/kg as global coffee futures declined on expectations of ample supply and improving weather conditions in Brazil. Robusta futures on the London exchange fell nearly 4% in the previous session, reflecting growing market pressure.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell 3,000 - 3,700 VND/kg on March 12 to 91,700 - 92,800 VND/kg.
> Robusta May 2026 futures on ICE London dropped 3.76% to $3,553/ton.
> Domestic robusta prices are about 600 VND/kg below London futures.
> Market pressure stems from favorable weather in Brazil, rising ICE inventories, and expectations of higher global supply.
> Brazil’s 2026 coffee output may reach 66.2 million bags, while global production could hit 180 million bags in 2026/27.
> Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 14% in the first two months of 2026.
> Robusta futures are expected to trade between $3,500 and $3,600 per ton in the March 12 session.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam dropped significantly on the morning of March 12, falling by 3,000 - 3,700 VND/kg to 91,700 - 92,800 VND/kg across the Central Highlands, following a steep decline in global coffee futures.
At the close of trading on Wednesday (March 11), robusta coffee futures for May 2026 on the London ICE exchange fell sharply to $3,553 per ton, down 3.76% (-$139/ton) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also posted notable losses. The March 2026 contract dropped 2.99% (-$112/ton) to $3,639 per ton, while the July 2026 contract declined 3.62% (-$130/ton) to $3,466 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta futures price is currently equivalent to about 93,300 VND/kg, based on the exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,266.51 VND.
With the domestic average price at around 92,700 VND/kg, Vietnamese robusta is currently about 600 VND/kg lower than the May 2026 London futures price, equivalent to roughly $22.84 per ton below the futures benchmark.
The global coffee market ended the March 11 trading session with significant losses on both major exchanges as several fundamental factors weighed on prices. On the ICE London exchange, the May 2026 robusta contract fell 3.76%, while other nearby contracts also recorded substantial declines.
Market pressure is largely driven by expectations of ample global supply. Weather forecasts indicate that key coffee-growing regions in Brazil may receive rainfall in the coming days, which is expected to support crop development. At the same time, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have increased, with arabica stocks recently reaching a five-month high before easing slightly later in the week.
Beyond weather conditions, expectations of higher global production are also dampening market sentiment. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab reported that the country’s coffee production in 2026 could rise 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Meanwhile, Rabobank projects that global coffee production in the 2026/27 season could reach a record 180 million bags, up roughly 8 million bags from the previous season.
Additional pressure on the robusta market comes from increasing supply from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer. According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the country exported 366,000 tons of coffee in the first two months of 2026, up 14% year-on-year. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase about 6%, reaching the highest level in four years.
Despite the bearish outlook, the market still has some supportive elements. Brazil’s green coffee exports fell 27% year-on-year in February, while Vietnamese farmers are reportedly slowing sales after having already sold significant volumes earlier. In addition, geopolitical tensions and elevated global shipping costs could continue to introduce volatility into commodity markets.
Given these mixed fundamentals, analysts believe the coffee market may enter a technical consolidation phase following the recent sharp decline. The May 2026 robusta futures contract on ICE London is expected to trade within a range of $3,500 - $3,600 per ton during the March 12 session.
Under the base scenario, prices could fluctuate around $3,520 - $3,580 per ton as bargain-buying emerges after the steep drop. However, if speculative selling continues, prices may test the $3,450 - $3,500 per ton support zone. Conversely, a technical rebound could push prices back toward $3,600 per ton, although a strong breakout appears unlikely in the near term.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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